衡量误量

伊斯坦布尔—我最近用了Uber(在线预订汽车和司机的服务),体验没有通常那么舒服。司机对路况不熟,更糟糕的是,他还不听导航仪的,明明应该向左转却向右转。当Uber如往常一样要我给司机评分时,我毫不犹豫地打了两分(满分五分)。我并不是心怀怨恨;我只是想别让其他乘客也有这么差的体验,我也希望这样的反馈能鼓励他改善工作或换个工作。

但两分意味着什么?这显然意味着低于平均分(三分)。但是,尽管我总是会选平均水平的司机而不是两分水平的司机,但由于在选择两分司机和瞎选之间,我还是会选择两分司机,因为害怕选到更差的司机让我不会选择冒险。这一众所周知的现象叫做风险规避——选到一分的风险压倒了选到五分的希望。

就在上周,我参与了骑士新闻挑战赛(Knight News Challenge)作品的打分;简单说,这是一个三分制体系:三分表示肯定,两分表示保留意见,一分表示否定。其中的思路是选择赢家,淘汰输家,并集中精力区别可上可下者。这有助于将注意力集中于需要做决定之处。

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