Macron peut-il redessiner la carte politique ?

Jun 7, 2017 Kemal Derviş , Caroline Conroy

WASHINGTON, DC – De nombreux commentateurs ont décrit la victoire d'Emmanuel Macron à l'élection présidentielle française comme un triomphe pour le centre droit, parce qu'il a reçu des votes qui auraient autrement été accordés à François Fillon, le candidat du parti conservateur traditionnel englué dans les scandales.

Pourtant, cette dynamique électorale ne saisit pas le sens de la victoire de Macron. Il serait plus exact de dire que Macron s’est joué des clivages des partis traditionnels et s’est fait le candidat de ceux qui croient que, grâce à une bonne gestion et aux nouvelles technologies, l'intégration européenne et les forces de la mondialisation peuvent apporter des bénéfices largement partagés. En revanche, la plupart des adversaires de Macron se sont contentés d’attiser les craintes concernant les réalités économiques d'aujourd'hui.

Prenez les statistiques suivantes à propos du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle française: 42% des partisans de Macron ont sympathisé dans le passé avec le Parti socialiste; et 36% ont eu tendance à soutenir les centristes. Ces données indiquent que les électeurs de gauche et du centre constituent la majeure partie de la base de soutien de Macron, et qu'ils le considéraient comme un candidat de centre-gauche, et non pas de centre-droit.

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Kemal Derviş

Writing for PS since 2003
111 Commentaries

Kemal Derviş, a former minister of economic affairs of Turkey and administrator for the United Nations Development Programme, is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Caroline Conroy

Writing for PS since 2017
7 Commentaries

Caroline Conroy is a senior research analyst at the Brookings Institution.

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j. von Hettlingen Jun 8, 2017

Kemal Derviş and Caroline Conroy explain how Emmanuel Macron has changed France's political landscape. The question is whether he can "redraw the political map." This year's presidential election was unprecedented in France's history, with the traditional political party system fighting for survival. The mainstream left and right were knocked out by two outsiders in the runoff. The independent centrist Macron is pro business and pro deregulation, and the far-right Marine Le Pen embraces "close-the-borders" nationalism.
The new president has blurred the traditional right-left divide in favour of economic liberalism and globalisation, while moving left on social issues. Even though he has reached out to voters "across the political spectrum," he shouldn't ignore "those on the extreme left and extreme right." Both the hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the far-right Marine Le-Pen are highly critical of the EU and share the same hostility towards globalisation.
In the first round Mélenchon came fourth with 19.6% of votes – representing 7 million voters – narrowly behind the conservative mainstream François Fillon. Marine Le Pen came second with 21.7% of votes. Although Macron finally beat Le Pen, winning 66.1% of the votes, he saw a low turnout and a record number of spoiled or blank votes - a disillusionment among many, particularly on the far left, at the choice they were given. Indeed, the first round results ought to send him the signal that 41.3% of French voters didn't cast a ballot for him, and he can't afford to ignore them if he wants to be successful.
In recent weeks Macron has formed a new government that reflects "great diversity" and gender equality, with an interesting mix of known figures from parties on the left, right and centre - an effort to firm up "his commitment to transforming French politics." The authors hail him as "a social-liberal policymaker with a good understanding of how the global economy works" - someone what "progressives everywhere have been looking for."
The authors say, France, under Macron, may be on its way to write a "new social contract" - one that "protects the most vulnerable from the rapid shifts and abrupt disruptions inherent in a flexible, open twenty-first-century economy." This is a daunting task, given the failure many of his predecessors had suffered - to reform the country's economy and laws. "But if Macron succeeds, he will have delivered on reformists’ long-held idea of 'modernity.'"
This "new social contract" aims to deal with the challenge France faces today. The "three pillars" support "strong social-security policies, which will allow for improved labor-market flexibility and greater economic dynamism;.... ..an industrial system that fosters technological diffusion and innovation, and encourages entrepreneurship;...... a firm commitment to economic openness, European integration, and globalization."
For Macron's loyal supporters these "three pillars are not just compatible, but mutually reinforcing." He has vowed to uphold "social justice, growth, and openess" in an effort to include those who had voted for Mélenchon, whose contentious agenda were social solidarity and France's withdrawal from the EU and Nato. "And for those on the center right, he has promised that, with reformed social policies, France can also have more market flexibility and innovation."
The authors believe "a new social contract" would allow Macron to "redraw the French political map." For the moment, "France is essentially stuck with 'double conservatism.'" On the one hand "conservatives on the right argue for weaker social policies as a means to improve competitiveness, while 'conservatives' on the left argue that that the existing system simply cannot be reformed." Macron's success formula will be "a new progressive political system that is based on a synthesis of social policies and liberalization could gradually emerge." Moreover he will also focus on forging a closer relationship with Angela Merkel to drive the Franco-German engine forward. "Unlike many of his opponents in the election, Macron sees Europe as a source of solutions, not problems." His success in France would boost the EU's strength, whose "attractive scale, pooled risk, and greater influence in global affairs" could improve "human progress" across the globe. "That is a fitting role for France and its president." Indeed, we wish Macron all the best, and hope that he will overcome the obstacles at home.
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Peter Schaeffer Jun 7, 2017

Hollande with more hair is still Hollande. Macron will fail for the same reasons Hollande failed. He will fail for the same reasons Blair failed. He will fail for the same reasons Renzi failed. He will fail for the same reasons that Obama failed. The idea that "neoliberalism works" belongs to another era. Neoliberalism is the god that failed. Clearly, some people (Kemal Dervis) haven't gotten the message yet.
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Steve Hurst Jun 7, 2017

Macron was elected on the 'None of the Above' ticket

He used the services of Liegey Muller Pons, to data drive his campaign to develop the blandest broadest based political diet that could be marketed

Macron basically promised to meet the diet sheet but actually doing that is a long way away from issuing the diet sheet. Diets are notoriously unsuccessful

Far too high an expectation is being placed on Macron, including those that voted 'None of the above'. Is it a bird, is it a plane. It's Macron. No, its a plane.
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