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Aarzelende mineur in de wereldeconomie

NEW HAVEN – Economische vertragingen kunnen vaak gekarakteriseerd worden als perioden van aarzeling. Consumenten aarzelen een nieuw huis of nieuwe auto te kopen, omdat ze denken dat het oude huis of auto nog prima een tijd mee kan. Managers aarzelen hun personeelsbestand uit te breiden, een nieuw kantoorgebouw te kopen, of een nieuwe fabriek te bouwen, wachtend op nieuws dat ze niet langer doet weifelen nieuwe ideeën aan te gaan. Hoeveel zorgen zouden we ons uit dit perspectief gezien momenteel moeten maken over de effecten van aarzeling?

Aarzelen lijkt vaak uitstelgedrag. Iemand kan vage twijfels hebben en de behoefte voelen om te wikken en wegen; in de tussentijd dringen zich andere kwesties op en wordt er geen beslissing genomen. Vraag mensen waarom ze uitstellen, en waarschijnlijk zal je geen helder antwoord krijgen.

Dus hoe wordt zulk gedrag zo wijdverspreid dat het een economische terugval kan veroorzaken? Het zal in de praktijk waarschijnlijk lastig zijn om de vraag wat de redenen zijn om activiteiten die de economie zouden stimuleren uit te stellen eenduidig te beantwoorden.

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