The headquarters of the European Central Bank Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

飘忽的市场和糟糕的政治

发自剑桥——全球经济增长在2017年有所上扬,因此人们寄望2018年的经济也能表现强劲。与此同时,民粹主义和专制主义的兴起给实现长期增长所依赖的稳定民主体制带来了风险,但那些似乎预示着政治动荡和混乱的头条新闻报道却并未阻止股市的飙升。这是为什么?

首先是好消息。全球同步增长的最大单一因素就是世界经济终于摆脱了2008年金融危机的阴影。当前的一部分好光景来自于多年来需求疲软的反弹。而且这波反弹还未结束,企业投资在经历了十年的萧条之后终于回暖,为未来更快的增长和更高的生产效率提升奠定了基础。

诚然,由于当局试图遏制信贷泡沫,中国的经济增长有所放缓,但许多其他新兴市场——特别是印度——将在今年实现更加快速的增长。不断上涨的股市和房地产市场可能会助长不平等状况,但也会推动消费者支出增加。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To read this article from our archive, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/U7Ky7D2/zh;

Handpicked to read next

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.