欧元区:早解体,早解脱?

纽约——欧元区能不能救得活,眼下还是个未知数。可是,如果解体最终无法避免,只是被延后了,那又会怎样?如果是这样的话,将不可避免的事情一拖再拖,只会把结局搞得更糟——糟得多。

德国日渐意识到,若要让欧元区边缘国家通过财政瘦身和对内贬值,而不是债务重组和退出货币联盟(并重新启用大幅贬值的本国货币)来重振经济增长、出口竞争力和债务可持续性,所花费的成本将达数万亿欧元。说真的,光是帮跨国乃至国内投资者出逃,就需要巨量官方融资。随着投资者收窄其在欧元区边缘国家国债、银行和企业证券上的敞口,流量和存量的不平衡都需要融资。整个调整过程将持续多年,一直到政策公信力重建起来为止,资本外逃不会停止,从而要求大量的官方融资覆盖相关缺口。

直到最近,这种官方融资都还是由财政当局(欧洲金融稳定机制EFSF以及很快将要接手的欧洲稳定机制ESM)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)提供的。但最近的趋势是,越来越多的官方融资来自欧洲央行(ECB)——首先通过购买债券,其次通过向银行提供流动性支持并由此在欧元区TARGET2清算系统内积累其收支平衡。由于德国和其他国家存在政治掣肘,方案了进一步强化建立在财政基础上的防火墙,ECB目前计划(通过购买债券)向西班牙和意大利提供新一轮大规模融资。

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