欧元区:早解体,早解脱?

纽约——欧元区能不能救得活,眼下还是个未知数。可是,如果解体最终无法避免,只是被延后了,那又会怎样?如果是这样的话,将不可避免的事情一拖再拖,只会把结局搞得更糟——糟得多。

德国日渐意识到,若要让欧元区边缘国家通过财政瘦身和对内贬值,而不是债务重组和退出货币联盟(并重新启用大幅贬值的本国货币)来重振经济增长、出口竞争力和债务可持续性,所花费的成本将达数万亿欧元。说真的,光是帮跨国乃至国内投资者出逃,就需要巨量官方融资。随着投资者收窄其在欧元区边缘国家国债、银行和企业证券上的敞口,流量和存量的不平衡都需要融资。整个调整过程将持续多年,一直到政策公信力重建起来为止,资本外逃不会停止,从而要求大量的官方融资覆盖相关缺口。

直到最近,这种官方融资都还是由财政当局(欧洲金融稳定机制EFSF以及很快将要接手的欧洲稳定机制ESM)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)提供的。但最近的趋势是,越来越多的官方融资来自欧洲央行(ECB)——首先通过购买债券,其次通过向银行提供流动性支持并由此在欧元区TARGET2清算系统内积累其收支平衡。由于德国和其他国家存在政治掣肘,方案了进一步强化建立在财政基础上的防火墙,ECB目前计划(通过购买债券)向西班牙和意大利提供新一轮大规模融资。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/YQKgPSu/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now