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Отчаянные центробанки

НЬЮ-ХЕЙВЕН – Последний день лета ознаменовался началом очередного сезона бесплодных мер крупнейших центральных банков мира – ФРС США и Банка Японии. Федеральный резерв просто ничего не стал делать, и в этом собственно и заключается проблема. А алхимики из Банка Японии разыграли ещё один беспомощный гамбит своей нетрадиционной политики.

И ФРС, и Банк Японии выбрали стратегию, которая трагически далека от реальной экономики, управление которой доверили этим институтам. Их последние действия свидетельствуют об углублении привязанности к коварным механизмам денежной трансмиссии между монетарной политикой, финансовыми рынками и связанной с активами экономикой. Такой подход привёл к краху 2008-2009 годов, и он может вполне посеять семена нового кризиса в предстоящие годы.

В спорах по поводу эффективности новых, мощных инструментов, которые центральные банки добавляют в свои арсеналы, оказалась забыта суровая реальность – анемичный рост экономики. Показательным примером здесь, конечно, является Япония. Всю последнюю четверть века страна, по сути, не сходила с траектории роста около 1% в год. Японская экономика никак не реагирует на бесконечные попытки применения экстраординарных монетарных стимулов.

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