Jon Hicks/Getty Images

人口与发展

华盛顿—实现宏大的可持续发展目标(SDG)——在今天到2030年间终结贫困、刺激共同繁荣、促进稳定——需要克服一些重大障碍,如保证足够资金应对气候变化、管理宏观经济冲击等。但有一个潜在障碍可能以福音的面貌出现:未来几年可能出现的人口变化分歧。

SDG日程到期时,全世界预计将有85亿人。二十年后——亦即距今34年后——可能会有近一百亿人,比今天的地球人口多出25亿。这将是一个怎样的世界?多出来的人将生活在哪里?他们如何生活?他们将提振还是压垮国民经济?

要寻找线索,我们可以回顾过去35年,从20世纪80年代初开始。美国总统里根、中国领导人邓小平、英国首相撒切尔夫人、法国总统密特朗以及苏联总统戈尔巴乔夫主宰着世界新闻头条。个人电脑销量可以忽略不计。孩子们的热门游戏是魔方而不是增强现实游戏口袋精灵(Pokémon)。

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