德班僵局

纽约——第十七届联合国气候变化框架会议(简称COP17)正在南非举行,这次会议的时间可谓关键,因为1997年京都议定书将于明年失效。但是,与2009年哥本哈根和2010年坎昆的气候变化会议相似,COP17很可能以期望越大失望越大的结局收场。

事实上,这些会议的铺张似乎并未收敛,反而有膨胀之势,因为它们的不给力已是众人皆知了。哥本哈根的COP15举行了12天,据估计共吸引了15000名与会代表和5000名记者。这么多人飞到丹麦所产生的碳排放可是实实在在的,而会议所追求的排放目标到现在还没个影子。德班也逃不过这个结局——只是规模可能比哥本哈根还要大。

真正的问题是,对气候变化采取有意义行动——而不是像奥巴马在在哥本哈根会议上那样姗姗来迟,而且如同蜻蜓点水一样来了就走——的期望越来越低。有两个问题根本不用指望解决。

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