emission cuts by country

用数字确定碳减排

美国剑桥—世界最大的两个碳排放国家的领导人——美国总统奥巴马和中国国家主席习近平在北京的讨论产生了意料之外的突破性温室气体排放双边协议。在新协议中,美国将在20年内在2015年碳排水平的基础上减排26—28%,而中国的碳排高峰将出现在2030年。在没有约束性全球协议的情况下,这样的单边或双边国家承诺为遏制全球变暖做出贡献代表了解决气候变化问题的最现实的希望。

1997年京都议定书(Kyoto Protocol)标志着迈向着手阻止气候变化最灾难性后果的重大一步,为制定有法律约束力的排放限值树立了先例。但京都议定书缺少发展中大国(如中国和印度)的承诺,而很大程度上拜此所赐,美国也从未在条约上签字。

一个松散的个别承诺体系——每个国家单方面设定排放目标——能够有助于建立信任和动力以便形成作为京都议定书后继者的更具包容性的协议,许多人希望可以在2015年的巴黎联合国气候变化会议上实现这一目标。但这一体系想要起作用,就需要有关于各国的公平目标如何确定的一般协议。然后,利益集团和研究者才能制定记分牌以确定哪些国家达到了标准——并令没有达标的国家蒙羞。

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