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Warum die chinesischen Städte das globale Wachstum beschleunigen

SCHANGHAI – Seit fünfzehn Jahren ist China eine Haupttriebkraft des globalen Wachstums. Aber jetzt, wo sich der investitionsgetriebene Boom des Landes seinem Ende zuneigt, wird das weitere Wirtschaftswachstum – in China und in der ganzen Welt – von den Konsumenten der chinesischen Städte abhängen. Im Jahr 2030 werden Menschen, die in Städten leben, 91% des weltweiten Konsumwachstums ausmachen, und China betont sowohl die Urbanisierung als auch ein konsumorientiertes Wachstumsmodell.

Jüngste Forschungen des McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) geben Anlass zu Optimismus, dass Chinas Strategie erfolgreich sein wird. MGI (bei denen eine von uns Partnerin ist) prophezeit ein anhaltendes Wachstum der Zahl und des Einkommens städtischer Konsumenten und sagt voraus, dass von heute bis zum Jahr 2030 von 700 chinesischen Städten 7 Billionen US-Dollar oder 30% des globalen städtischen Konsums beigesteuert werden.

Momentan leben in Chinas Städten 521 Millionen Konsumenten im arbeitsfähigen Alter, und in nur 15 Jahren wird diese Zahl auf 628 Millionen steigen. In Peking, Guangzhou, Schanghai und Shenzhen wird es jeweils mehr als eine Million neue Haushalte mit einem Jahreseinkommen von über 70.000 US$ geben – was der heutigen Anzahl solcher Haushalte in Hongkong entspricht. Die Pro-Kopf-Ausgaben werden bis 2030 von 4.800 Dollar auf 10.700 Dollar steigen, und dann wird diese Gruppe zu jedem Dollar des weltweiten städtischen Konsums 12 Cents beitragen.

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