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Les citadins chinois, moteurs de la croissance mondiale

SHANGHAI – Depuis 15 ans la Chine est l'un des principaux moteurs de la croissance mondiale. Mais maintenant que le boom économique chinois lié à un investissement massif est derrière nous, la croissance - que ce soit au niveau du pays ou de toute la planète - va dépendre des habitants des villes chinoises. En 2030 les citadins seront à l'origine de 91% de la croissance de la consommation mondiale, or la politique chinoise favorise à la fois l'urbanisation et une croissance basée sur la consommation intérieure.

Selon une étude récente du McKinsey Global Institute, la politique chinoise pourrait réussir. Selon les prévisions de cet institut (dont l'un de nous est un associé), le nombre de citadins, ainsi que leurs revenus, devraient continuer à croître, tandis que 700 villes chinoises devraient générer 7 000 milliards de dollars de revenus d'ici 2030 - soit 30% de la croissance de la consommation urbaine pour cette période.

Les citadins chinois en âge de travailler sont 521 millions et en seulement 15 ans ce chiffre va passer à 628 millions. La population de chacune des villes de Pékin, Canton, Shanghai et Shenzen va augmenter de plus d'un million de foyers dont le revenu annuel dépasse 70 000 dollars ( à Hong Kong un million de foyers disposent actuellement d'un tel revenu). En Chine les dépenses de ces citadins devraient passer de 4 800 dollars aujourd'hui à 10 700 dollars d'ici 2030 et leur consommation représentera 12% de la consommation totale des citadins à travers le monde.

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