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为何中国城市将驱动全球增长

上海—15年来,中国一直是全球增长的关键引擎。但随着中国的投资拉动繁荣动力告罄,后续经济增长——不管是中国还是全世界——将取决于中国消费者。到2030年,生活在城市中的居民将贡献91%的全球消费增长,而中国正在同时强调城镇化和消费拉动的增长模式。

麦肯锡全球研究所(MGI)的最新研究对于中国战略能取得成功十分乐观。MGI(我们其中之一是其合伙人)预测城市消费者数量和收入将继续增长,从现在到2030年,700座中国城市将产生7万亿美元或30%的全球城市消费增长。

如今,中国城镇工作年龄消费者数量为5.21亿;不出15年,这一数字将膨胀到6.28亿。北京、广州、上海和深圳将各自增加一百万以上年收入超70,000美元的家庭——相当于目前达到这一收入水平的香港家庭总数。2030年人均支出预计将从4,800美元猛增至10,700美元,届时,该群体将贡献全世界城市消费总额的12%。

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