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朝鲜的“中国优先”战略

伦敦—大部分专家都认为,应对朝鲜核武器的最不坏的方法,是坚持严厉遏制和积极外交相结合。但较少有人认识到,最不坏的军事选项——即美国总统特朗普坚持要中国为其危险的邻居负责所暗示的——是中国侵入朝鲜,或在中国的威胁下实现朝鲜的政权更迭。

这一结果将极大地改变东亚战略平衡,而中国是最大赢家。这一情景并不像大部分人认为的那样希望渺茫。事实上,它具有相当的合理性,因此,它需要认真对待,包括中国的军事策略家。用特朗普的话说,这是一个“中国优先”选项,有助于“让中国再次伟大”。

任何军事干预,不管由中国还是其他国家执行,都会带来巨大的风险。但在思考这些问题以前,想一想中国干预获得成功能够实现什么。首先,朝鲜将回到朝鲜战争后的历史地位:置于中国核保护伞治下,受益于可信的安全保障。

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