Xi Jinping VCG/Getty Images

朝鲜的“中国优先”战略

伦敦—大部分专家都认为,应对朝鲜核武器的最不坏的方法,是坚持严厉遏制和积极外交相结合。但较少有人认识到,最不坏的军事选项——即美国总统特朗普坚持要中国为其危险的邻居负责所暗示的——是中国侵入朝鲜,或在中国的威胁下实现朝鲜的政权更迭。

这一结果将极大地改变东亚战略平衡,而中国是最大赢家。这一情景并不像大部分人认为的那样希望渺茫。事实上,它具有相当的合理性,因此,它需要认真对待,包括中国的军事策略家。用特朗普的话说,这是一个“中国优先”选项,有助于“让中国再次伟大”。

任何军事干预,不管由中国还是其他国家执行,都会带来巨大的风险。但在思考这些问题以前,想一想中国干预获得成功能够实现什么。首先,朝鲜将回到朝鲜战争后的历史地位:置于中国核保护伞治下,受益于可信的安全保障。

毛泽东曾说,中国和朝鲜“唇齿相依”——此话最为精辟,中国军队在朝鲜战争中阻止了美国的胜利就是明证。但在此后直至今日的六十年里,日本和韩国一直是美国的紧密盟友,有美军驻扎,置于美国的核保护下,而中国和朝鲜则渐行渐远

结果,中国很难控制这个邻国和所谓的盟友,甚至有可能对它的未来方向一无所知。诚然,它可以通过进一步切断贸易、阻断能源供给来加紧对朝鲜的围困。但这除了把失道寡助的金正恩推向另一个邻国——俄罗斯寻求支持之外,没有其他效果。

如果如人们普遍认为的那样,朝鲜希望以可信的安全保障换取其停止核计划,那么唯一有能力提供安全保障的只有中国。美国的承诺只限于许下承诺的总统给出的内容,甚至只能维持到这位总统下台。

The World’s Opinion Page

Help support Project Syndicate’s mission.

Donate

因此,如果中国将入侵威胁和安全和核保护承诺相结合,换取朝鲜的合作以及可能的政权更迭,其争取到朝鲜人民军大部的机会很大。尽管与美国进行核战争意味着灾难,但向中国屈服能够带来生存,可能还能保持一定程度的自主权。除了金正恩及其亲信,这个选择并不难做出。

对中国来说,成功的军事干预的战略收益不仅包括控制朝鲜半岛的局势——因为它将可以在朝鲜部署军事基地,还将因为阻止了一场灾难性战争而获得整个地区的感激。

除此之外,再无其他行动有望让中国领导亚洲显得既可信又可求,特别是在除此之外的唯一选项只剩下鲁莽仓促的美国领导的战争的情况下。毕竟,中国需要的是合法性,而干预朝鲜能够提供合法性。成功地运用硬实力将给中国带来——用哈佛大学的约瑟夫·奈(Joseph S. Nye)发明的区分讲——巨大的软实力储备。

现在,有一个640亿元人民币的问题:这能成功吗?我们无法确知答案,任何军事干预都包含着巨大的风险。如今,中国武装部队装备精良,但缺少可比的战场经验。而他们的处于弱势的对手有一个也许时刻准备使用核武器和其他大规模杀伤性武器的领导层——如果他们断然拒绝中国的条件和投向的话。

我们几乎可以肯定的是,中国,而不是美国的陆路和海路入侵,更有机会避免金正恩有可能采取的反应:对距离非军事区只有几十英里的韩国首都首尔发动火箭攻击。中国的入侵承诺会继续保障朝鲜的安全乃至自主,既然如此,朝鲜为什么还要报复性地屠戮南方邻国和姐妹?

此外,尽管我们断不可想当然地认为金氏政权会保持核克制,但和美国相比,中国更不可能成为朝鲜导弹的目标。如果认真考虑中国军事干预的选项,与美国进行一些情报和导弹防御合作或许就值得研究。考虑到风险,美国很难拒绝这一建议。

这一情景很可能永远不会发生。但考虑其可能性是应有之义。毕竟,这是中国在东亚地区实现更大的对美战略平价,同时移除威胁其北部的动荡源的最好的机会。

http://prosyn.org/jCqjUHy/zh;

Handpicked to read next

  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.