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美中关系的合作对抗

坎布里奇—10月份,我访问了北京,很多人问我,美国副总统彭斯最近对中国的激烈批评是否标志着宣布新冷战。我回答说,美国和中国进入了双边关系的新阶段,但冷战隐喻具有误导性。

冷战期间,美国和苏联的数万核武器彼此瞄准,也几乎没有任何贸易和文化联系。相反,中国的核力量更加有限,中美年贸易总额高达五千亿美元,每年有350,000多中国留学生和三百万游客赴美。对于当今双边关系,更适合的描述是“合作对抗”(cooperative rivalry)。

自二战以来,美中关系经历了三个阶段,每个阶段大约维持二十年。朝鲜战争后的20年是敌对状态,1972年尼克松访华后,双方进入了对抗苏联的有限合作阶段。

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