A woman uses an escalator in a shopping mall in Shanghai

Economics

Екпіндеген Қытай экономикасы

Jan 30, 2018 Jim O'Neill

ЛОНДОН – Қытайдың жақында жариялаған 2017 жылғы ЖІӨ жөніндегі есебі бір жайтты айқын дәлелдеді: бұл елдің даму қарқыны және әлем экономикасына ықпалы бәсеңдер емес.

Әрине, ақпарат құралдарында Қытай таратқан мәліметтердің күмәнділігі туралы әңгімелер де болған, себебі елдің кей аймақтары соңғы жылдары экономикалық көрсеткіштерін асыра көрсетуге бейіл. Дегенмен, басқа аймақтар керісінше де істеп жүруі ықтимал. Мәліметтерін асыра көрсеткенін мойындаған аймақтардың саны онша көп емес, сондықтан бұл жалпыұлттық нәтижеге соншалық ықпал ете қоймас.

Оның үстіне, Қытайдың 1990-жылдардың соңынан тарата бастаған ресми статистикалық мәліметтері туралы сөз еткенде екі мәселе назардан тыс қала береді. Біріншіден, Қытай көрсеткіштерді тым ұлғайтып жіберсе ғана мұндай пікірталасты бастаудың жөні бар. Екіншіден, Қытай жариялаған мәліметті оның басты сауда әріптестерінің және Қытайда жұмыс істейтін басты халықаралық компаниялардың өздерінде бар деректермен салыстыра қарау керек. Бұрын да жазғанымдай, объективті деректер бойынша Қытай Франция мен АҚШ-ты басып озып, Германияның басты сауда әріптесіне айналды.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 Comments on this article

Barry Rosenfeld Feb 4, 2018

On a PPP basis, China might already be the largest economy, but so what? It will be sooner or later. If China can sustain 4% GDP growth and its major economic competitors 3%, then it is just a time calculation.

The real challenges China creates for the current int'l order is when the Renminbi becomes the preferred currency for valuing int'l transactions and its economic dominance is translated into hard and soft geopolitical power. Currently, the "West" is in collective denial about the future, not all that surprising as its political and economic leaders have only short term tactical horizons.

The false analysis that was promoted about economic liberalization creating domestic political liberalization has been unmasked for what it had always been - a way of getting democracies to agree to enabling multinationals and global finance to earn large short term profits. Not only has China almost regained its position as the Middle Kingdom (Western leaders offering tribute, if not yet kow-towing), but several hundred million Chinese have been lifted from poverty. Isn't that good for domestic legitimacy?

Democracy? What good has it been for the large number of working class people and their communities that have suffered for the alleged benefits of microscopic additions to rich country GDPs. Is it all that surprising that ethnically-based populism is now the rising star of Western politics?
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Ralph Huenemann Feb 4, 2018

In your discussion, you never mention the important argument put forward by Michael Pettis--namely, that a significant part (quite possibly half or more) of recent Chinese GDP growth is faux growth (investment in zombie enterprises, underutilized bridges, etc.).
- Alex Aslanidis Feb 7, 2018
  
  It doesn't matter, as long as China maintains a surplus current-account. The policies that you described promote employment and income generation, therefore they're beneficial. Sure, one may argue that resources could be better used, but they could also be worse used by remaining inactive (the fatal mistake that the West makes in it's pursue of fiscal orthodoxy).
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Robert Bruce Feb 4, 2018

By 2050 China's economy could be twice the size if any other nation. By then there will be 5 billion people in Asia, and 2 billion in Africa, while Western Europe and North America put together will still only amount to 1 billion. You might think that the need to achieve stable Global governance would jolt Europe and America into serious attempts at a Global Partnership now. The history of Europe still tells terrible lessons of what nationalist "them and us" thinking led too, before we learned the wisdom to build more open economic and social ties between our countries.
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Godfree Roberts Jan 30, 2018

Perpetual Western allegations about Chinese stats have been concocted solely to justify perpetual Western predictions of Chinese economic collapse, viz

1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy enters a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?

The West’s tendency to treat it as The Enemy has given us a grossly distorted picture in which China, while making brief, sporadic progress in a few areas, is barely clinging to economic survival, always threatened with collapse or bankruptcy, hindered by irrational economic policies and offering little hope that the lives of average Chinese will improve–while the rest of the world moves ahead. This is what Mao meant by ‘talking nonsense’–permissible in the West’s media but prohibited in China’s.
- Paul Friesen Jan 31, 2018
  
  I certainly agree that we are subjected to a deluge of negative propaganda about China. Russia too. Neither of these countries is an ideal state, but they are far better than usually portrayed.
  - Michael Public Feb 1, 2018
    
    They conflate economics with other problems China has. China's economy is rock solid because they produce virtually everything physical consumed in the rest of the World.
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