A woman uses an escalator in a shopping mall in Shanghai

Economics

不可阻挡的中国崛起

Jan 30, 2018 Jim O'Neill

发自伦敦——中国最近发布的2017年GDP数据证实了一点：该国令人瞩目的崛起以及与全球经济相关度的急剧上升都并没有放缓。

无可否认，由于有报道说近年来某些省份故意调高了自身经济表现，媒体对于中国数据的可靠性又开始喋喋不休。但是据我们所知，其他省份可能正在做相反的事情。无论如何，那些承认数据作假的省份还不足以对整个国家的形象产生重大影响。

此外针对1990年代末首次发布的中国官方统计的争论往往会漏掉两个关键点。首先，这个辩论只有在中国逐步提升其数据虚报程度的时候才有意义。其次，中国公布的数据应该结合贸易伙伴的数据以及在华运营的主要跨国企业的情况来考虑。正如我以前所写的那样，这都已经表明中国已经超越法国和美国，成为了德国最大的贸易伙伴。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 Comments on this article

Barry Rosenfeld Feb 4, 2018

On a PPP basis, China might already be the largest economy, but so what? It will be sooner or later. If China can sustain 4% GDP growth and its major economic competitors 3%, then it is just a time calculation.

The real challenges China creates for the current int'l order is when the Renminbi becomes the preferred currency for valuing int'l transactions and its economic dominance is translated into hard and soft geopolitical power. Currently, the "West" is in collective denial about the future, not all that surprising as its political and economic leaders have only short term tactical horizons.

The false analysis that was promoted about economic liberalization creating domestic political liberalization has been unmasked for what it had always been - a way of getting democracies to agree to enabling multinationals and global finance to earn large short term profits. Not only has China almost regained its position as the Middle Kingdom (Western leaders offering tribute, if not yet kow-towing), but several hundred million Chinese have been lifted from poverty. Isn't that good for domestic legitimacy?

Democracy? What good has it been for the large number of working class people and their communities that have suffered for the alleged benefits of microscopic additions to rich country GDPs. Is it all that surprising that ethnically-based populism is now the rising star of Western politics?
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Ralph Huenemann Feb 4, 2018

In your discussion, you never mention the important argument put forward by Michael Pettis--namely, that a significant part (quite possibly half or more) of recent Chinese GDP growth is faux growth (investment in zombie enterprises, underutilized bridges, etc.).
- Alex Aslanidis Feb 7, 2018
  
  It doesn't matter, as long as China maintains a surplus current-account. The policies that you described promote employment and income generation, therefore they're beneficial. Sure, one may argue that resources could be better used, but they could also be worse used by remaining inactive (the fatal mistake that the West makes in it's pursue of fiscal orthodoxy).
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Robert Bruce Feb 4, 2018

By 2050 China's economy could be twice the size if any other nation. By then there will be 5 billion people in Asia, and 2 billion in Africa, while Western Europe and North America put together will still only amount to 1 billion. You might think that the need to achieve stable Global governance would jolt Europe and America into serious attempts at a Global Partnership now. The history of Europe still tells terrible lessons of what nationalist "them and us" thinking led too, before we learned the wisdom to build more open economic and social ties between our countries.
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Godfree Roberts Jan 30, 2018

Perpetual Western allegations about Chinese stats have been concocted solely to justify perpetual Western predictions of Chinese economic collapse, viz

1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy enters a dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash?

The West’s tendency to treat it as The Enemy has given us a grossly distorted picture in which China, while making brief, sporadic progress in a few areas, is barely clinging to economic survival, always threatened with collapse or bankruptcy, hindered by irrational economic policies and offering little hope that the lives of average Chinese will improve–while the rest of the world moves ahead. This is what Mao meant by ‘talking nonsense’–permissible in the West’s media but prohibited in China’s.
- Paul Friesen Jan 31, 2018
  
  I certainly agree that we are subjected to a deluge of negative propaganda about China. Russia too. Neither of these countries is an ideal state, but they are far better than usually portrayed.
  - Michael Public Feb 1, 2018
    
    They conflate economics with other problems China has. China's economy is rock solid because they produce virtually everything physical consumed in the rest of the World.
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