Dean Rohrer

Blasen erkennen

NEW HAVEN: Als jemand, der über die Spekulation am Markt geschrieben hat, werde ich oft gefragt, wo sich die nächste große Spekulationsblase entwickeln dürfte. Wieder auf dem Häusermarkt? Oder auf dem Aktienmarkt?

Wissen weiß ich es nicht, aber ich habe eine gewisse Ahnung. Niemand kann Blasen präzise vorhersagen. Aus meiner Sicht sind Blasen gesellschaftliche Epidemien, die sich durch eine Art interpersoneller Ansteckung ausbreiten. Eine Blase bildet sich, wenn die Ansteckungsrate für Ideen, die eine Blasenbildung unterstützen, steigt. Doch hängen diese Ansteckungsraten von Denkmustern ab, die schwer zu beurteilen sind.

Große Spekulationsblasen sind selten. (Kleine Blasen, etwa was den Kurs einzelner Aktien angeht, passieren ständig und eignen sich nicht als Antwort auf unsere Frage.) Und weil große Blasen viele Jahre lang bestehen, muss man seine Vorhersagen viele Jahre in die Zukunft hinein machen, was ein bisschen so ist, als wolle man vorhersagen, wer nach der überübernächsten Wahl die Regierung führt.

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