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Economics

巴西的出路

Sep 5, 2016 Otaviano Canuto

华盛顿—被弹劾的巴西总统罗塞夫已经下台，清理巴西宏观经济乱局的担子落在了新掌权的总统特梅尔政府肩上。特梅尔政府能够拯救步履维艰的巴西经济吗？

情况不可不谓惨淡。事实上，巴西最近正在经历近年来最强力的经济收缩。人均GDP比2013年下降了10%以上。失业飙升到11%以上，比2015年1月高了四个百分点。

巴西复苏之路漫漫，原因很简单：当前的乱局源头是近年来其长期存在的经济弱点不断恶化——特别是财政挥霍和生产率增长低迷。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

eusebio manuel Sep 11, 2016

The conclusion of the new President Michel fear has absolutely no legitimacy only new elections can restore political trust in Brazil
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silvio starosta Sep 7, 2016

Very light, very elegant opinion.
The thing is not describe what to do now on economic matter.
first of all , lets say that all the process was a violation.
lets say that Temer and the judges are more corrupt then Dilma, and let point very fair that the inspiration was dark forces.
My question is: which is the philosophy of the world bank on democracy, something like your ????
Bad thing Dr.
why you don't write with a book of law in your hands.??

aracataca.es
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Jose araujo Sep 6, 2016

"it is up to the newly empowered administration of President Michel Temer to clean up Brazil’s macroeconomic mess. Can Temer’s government save Brazil’s crumbling economy?"

Yes Brazil problem is fiscal profligacy and the social programs...

This is why Brazil is in troubles, people like MR. Canuto
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Danny Leipziger Sep 6, 2016

Canuto is on the right track here. In addition to reform areas mentioned, I would add fostering greater competition (meaning lowering implicit and explicit import restrictions) to improve the quality and productivity of domestic output. Without this, Brazil will not be able to export higher value added products, will not keep its innovators, and will not move forward on productivity. A second area pf concern is access to credit. Hopefully BNDES under new management will invest more wisely and banks will provide credit to new producers. Credit markets cannot operate with spreads of 15-18%. Fixing Brazil requires reforms of the public sector and reforms to unleash a more competitive private sector.
- Jose araujo Sep 6, 2016
  
  Brazil's problems its the oligarchies, the small minded elites.
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Romeu Temporal Sep 5, 2016

Brazilian political conundrum is the key to unfold our growth prospects.
Any structural reforms desperately needed will pass Congress. Unpredictability is back. http://rmeutemporal.blogspot.com.br/
- Jose araujo Sep 6, 2016
  
  The structural reforms Brazil’s needs are the end of the previleges, rentiers and oligrachs, which Mr Temer is a representative.
  
  With such abject levels of poverty in Brazil, the low level of living conditions, education, security and health systems, it’s absurd talking of structural economic reforms without talking about a social reform, and nor Mr. Temer nor Mr. Canuto can neither understand that nor lead the way, because they are one of the main causes of the system being like what it is.
  
  The Brazilian elites don’t even believe in the democratic system and institutions, how do you expect them to lead the way into a market economy?
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