美国在未来十年的增长

剑桥 ——

尽管人们尚不确定美国经济在 2010 年是否能强劲有力,但对其在未来十年中可能的表现进行展望,仍是一件重要的事情。未来十年间,该国国内生产总值的增长,将反映出两方面的作用因素:一是美国最终从本轮深度低迷中恢复元气一事所具有的非常积极之效果,一是该经济体的充分就业状态下潜在产能的、低于趋势水平之增长。当我将所有的关键因素统统加以考虑之后,得出了以下结论:未来十年的年均增速可能会在 1.9% 左右,这与过去十年间的平均速度基本一致。

为了弄清得出这一结论的原因,让我们首先从周期性复苏谈起。我对此做出了一个乐观但却可信的假设:经济将在未来十年中完全复苏,而失业率将会从目前的 10% 降至大约 5% 。重返充分就业状态一事,也将减少那些因为觉得没有哪种工作与自己的技能对口、所以倍感沮丧并停止求职者的人数(这些人因此并未被纳入失业统计之中)。

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