„Portfoliový“ přístup ke změně klimatu

Svět se snaží v rámci Kjótského protokolu snižovat uhlíkové emise jen s malým úspěchem. Enormní úsilí vynaložené na uvedení protokolu do života nicméně naznačuje, kolik práce ještě bude třeba vykonat, aby vznikla nová úmluva, která se má odsouhlasit v Kodani v prosinci 2009. Aktivisté budou naléhat na zavedení přísnějších a dalekosáhlejších politik, přetrvá ale silný vzdor zemí obávajících se o jejich ekonomickou životaschopnost.

Nová jednání budou mít oproti předchozím úsilím jednu výhodu, neboť vlády nyní chápou nezbytnost portfolia snah zaměřených na adaptaci, zmírňování následků a výzkum. Nový výzkum, který jsem se svými kolegy prováděl pro Centrum Kodaňského konsenzu z Dánska, prověřuje účelnost různých reakcí na tuto globální výzvu, avšak z několika důvodů silně podporuje portfoliový přístup.

Zaprvé, dnes už víme, že adaptace bude nezbytná, protože do roku 2100 se teploty zvýší o dalších 0,6°C, i kdyby emise skleníkových plynů hned zítra zcela ustaly. Víme také, že dopady změny klimatu nebudou na planetě rovnoměrně rozložené.

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