housing development Mint Images/ZumaPress

为何小泡沫会造成大萧条

发自伯克利——当泡沫膨胀时,其规模还不算太大。在随美国遭遇近一个世纪以来最严重经济危机而暴跌之前的2002~2006年间,经济中住宅建筑占GDP的份额仅比先前的趋势值高出了1.2%。据笔者的粗略计算,这一时期住房领域的过度投资总额约为5000亿美元——无论怎样计算,都不过崩溃时世界经济总规模的一小部分而已。

然而因此造成的损失却是巨大的。欧洲及北美各经济体比预期无危机的情况萎缩了6%。换句话说,相对少量的过度投资竟然导致了每年约1.8万亿美元的GDP损失。鉴于跌幅尚未出现收窄的迹象,我估计包括预期增长率和股本回报率在内,GDP总损失最终将达到近3000万亿美元。意味着每1美元的房地产市场过度投资会令世界经济遭受6000美元的损失。这是怎么回事?

需要特别注意的是,并非所有的经济衰退都会造成如此严重的痛苦。比如1987,1991,1997,1998和2001年(当时网络泡沫破灭,4万亿美元的过度投资也打了水漂)的金融冲击就对更广泛的实体经济影响不大。而为什么这次情况会不同则可在奥斯卡·乔达(Òscar Jordà)、莫利兹<>·舒拉里克(Moritz Schularick)、艾伦M·泰勒(Alan M. Taylor)最近发表的论文里找到答案。在这篇论文中作者指出,大规模的信贷繁荣会大大加重资产泡沫崩溃造成的破坏。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/KNtHBUC/zh;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.