¿Qué esperar del 44° presidente?

NUEVA YORK – Las campañas, sean políticas o militares, se emprenden para ganarlas, y la actual campaña por la presidencia de Estados Unidos no es la excepción. Los candidatos demócrata y republicano están haciendo todo lo que pueden para diferenciarse uno del otro y de un presidente en funciones impopular en las semanas que quedan antes de que los estadounidenses voten.

Gran parte de la atención se concentra, por razones de peso, en las diferencias en la política exterior de los dos candidatos, que en muchas áreas son obvias y considerables. Sin embargo, se pueden discernir algunas similitudes, en parte porque algunos de los desacuerdos no son tan profundos como parecen y en parte porque las limitaciones a que se enfrentará el próximo presidente de los Estados Unidos seguramente restringirán lo que cualquiera de los dos pueda hacer cuando tenga el cargo.

Veamos el caso de Iraq, la cuestión más divisiva en la política estadounidense de los últimos cinco años. Barack Obama señala regularmente que la decisión de iniciar la guerra adolecía de serias deficiencias; John McCain subraya cuánto han cambiado las cosas desde principios de 2007, cuando aumentó el número de soldados y se revisó la estrategia estadounidense. Se podría disculpar a un observador que pensara que se está hablando de dos conflictos totalmente distintos.

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