Ce que nous réserve le 44e président

NEW YORK – les campagnes, qu’elles soient militaires ou politiques, sont menées pour être gagnées, et la campagne présidentielle américaine actuelle ne fait pas exception. Les candidats démocrate et républicain font tout leur possible pour se distancier d’un impopulaire président en exercice et se différencier l’un de l’autre dans les dernières semaines avant que les Américains ne se rendent aux urnes.

Les différences de politique étrangère entre les deux candidats font l’objet d’une grande attention, à juste titre ; dans de nombreux domaines, elles sont aussi évidentes que considérables. Pourtant, il est possible de discerner des ressemblances entre les candidats, en partie parce que leurs désaccords ne sont pas aussi prononcés qu’ils en ont l’air, et en partie parce que les contraintes auxquelles sera soumis le prochain président des États-Unis vont certainement limiter le champ d’action de l’un comme de l’autre une fois élu.

Prenons l’Irak, principal sujet de division de la politique américaine depuis cinq ans. Barack Obama souligne régulièrement que la décision de partir en guerre était profondément erronée ; John McCain insiste sur le fait que les événements ont changé d’orientation depuis début 2007, quand le nombre de soldats américains a augmenté et la stratégie américaine a été corrigée. Des observateurs pourraient facilement croire qu’ils parlent de deux conflits totalement différents.

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