Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath of Crisis, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.
纽约—如果唐纳德·特朗普输掉美国大选,在6月英国退欧公投后眼看就要席卷全世界的民粹主义浪潮会不会开始消退?还是反对全球化和移民的叛逆潮将以另外一种形式出现?
人们广泛认为,英国、美国和欧洲保护主义和反移民情绪的崛起反映了收入停滞、不平等性加剧、结构性就业和过度的货币宽松。但出于一些原因,应该质疑民粹主义政治和经济不景气之间的联系。
首先,大部分民粹主义选民不穷,也有工作;他们不是全球化、移民和自由贸易的受害者。反建制情绪高涨的主力军是劳动力之外的人群:退休者、中年家庭主妇和主夫以及享受残疾救济的教育程度较低的男性。
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