harrington23_MANDEL NGANAFP via Getty Images_dancoatsUSintelligencesecurity

The Spies Who Predicted COVID-19

Apr 16, 2020 Kent Harrington

Despite US President Donald Trump's claims, a pandemic has long been among the top threats listed by America's intelligence community. But even the country's best analysts could not foresee that it would happen under a leader willing to sacrifice so many lives on the altar of his ego.

ATLANTA – Intelligence agencies are used to making headlines when they fail to do their job. But after months of US President Donald Trump ignoring their warnings about COVID-19, and after years of his administration discounting their alerts about the danger of a pandemic more generally, it is time that intelligence professionals receive the credit they deserve.

It should come as no surprise that Trump repeatedly dismissed intelligence about the threat of the coronavirus throughout January and February. Trump has long made clear that he has no patience for those who don’t pander to his views. When intelligence leaders contradicted him on several issues in their annual briefing to Congress last year, he told them to “go back to school.”

This year, the bill for Trump’s war on intelligence is coming due in the form of lost lives and overwhelmed health-care systems. US intelligence agencies had sounded the alarm and even provided the enemy’s battleplan, detailing precisely how a novel coronavirus pandemic would unfold. Still, the wannabe wartime president did nothing. Res ipsa loquitur – the negligence speaks for itself.

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Already have an account? Log in

Support High-Quality Commentary

For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.

But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.

As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads, book reviews, and insider interviews; Big Picture topical collections; Say More contributor interviews; Opinion Has It podcast features; The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.

By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 37 Comments on this article

Guitar Player May 15, 2020

Harrington is trying to blame Trump for 12 years of negligence even though he's only been there for 3.

"The intelligence community first raised the alert immediately after President Barack Obama took office in January 2009, when then-DNI Dennis Blair testified that, “The most pressing transnational health challenge for the United States is still the potential for emergence of a severe pandemic...a highly lethal influenza virus.”.

"The health and economic consequences that we are now experiencing have long been predicted. US intelligence analysts were warning about precisely this scenario for at least 12 years."
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Konstanzhoglo Konstanzhoglo Apr 25, 2020

As I see it's a typical attempt of the U.S. intelligence society to show its usefulness. The facts provided in the article can be got from open sources by anybody it's unnecessary to be an intelligence analytics to knew about them. So don't try to make a fuss and assure us that intelligence staff is smarter other people and can predict the future.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Guitar Player Apr 23, 2020

"US intelligence analysts were warning about precisely this scenario for at least 12 years"
The federal gov't and the states should have acquired the necessary supplies in 2009 for "precisely this scenario". According to the writer, everybody in the federal government knew everything there was to know about Covid-19 for 12 years.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Apr 23, 2020

This comment was removed by a moderator. Replies to this comment may also be deleted. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
simon noble Apr 23, 2020

The writer lists the intelligence warnings since 2009 but chooses to lambast Trump only. The reality is that Obama along with nearly every leader worldwide ignored the issue. Trump did too and in his inimitable style made it seem worse but he is simply continuing a well established trend. Look around the world. How many countries acted decisively before the US? Precious few and most criticized Trump for things like closing air travel which now are taken as a given.
No fan of Trump but could we please drop the polemics and focus on facts?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Madurai Padmanabhan Apr 20, 2020

The author does not involve the Five Eyes in his argument. If the other 4 members knew and had acted on the pandemic intelligence, as they are on Huawei, would this is become a better deliberation of facts?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Kurt Kristensen Apr 19, 2020

I enjoyed reading Mr. Harrington's historical summary of presidential annual intelligence reports for the period 2008-2020; the 2008 forecast report 'Global Trends 2025' should have been a sobering warning for all adult leaders during the last 12 years. Cross referencing his data appear to substantially confirm his presentation.

It is saddening that our best response to a global pandemic and an economic and social depression level has been an increase in name-calling by almost all adults. Rather than a deepening resolve to respectfully listen to people with differing opinions, perspectives and professional knowledge.

Historically, our escalating confrontational behavior in politics and public look remarkably like the behavior that led many of the world's countries to adopt social policies and elect leaders that started WWII. The stark contrast between rich and poor leading up to the 1929 stock market crash also appear to be a repeating pattern for 2020-30.

It would be less stressful if our sources of 'news' analysis came closer to the sober model Mr. Harrington uses to share information and facts. Perhaps we would all have a better grasp on essential common information, if we did not have almost all our news sources owned by huge corporations.

It would be difficult to defend any scientific paper using the kinds of facts the public is faced with daily from Fox TV.

Anyone looking at the lack of US preparedness to deal with the pandemic of 2020 should have serious questions about both Democratic and Republican leaders who have been in positions of leadership during 2008-2020 period.

The defunding of CDC during 2016-2019 should be especially troublesome.

Perhaps it is time to consider NEVER vote for an incumbent politician again, and, perhaps, it is time to look for people of maturity who are willing to serve our common wellness in congress and as presidents, and then go back home again.
- Michael Public Apr 20, 2020
  
  "It would be difficult to defend any scientific paper using the kinds of facts the public is faced with daily from Fox TV." You would be surprised at the number of papers that just fake results.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Peter Schaeffer Apr 19, 2020

Schiff had a vast public audience via the media. He used it to promote the Russiagate Hoax, not the impending Coronavirus crisis. Making excuses for Schiff is absurd.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Randall Lawton Apr 19, 2020

What about President George W. Bush's push for preparedness. Not mentioned and well before Obama's.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Elizabeth Pula Apr 18, 2020

The fulcrum point between the state and the individual is war/peace. There is one fulcrum point. The balance of power depends upon the organizational skills and application of those skills by human beings. Machines can be utilized to allow better and more timely systems of operations. Today, the telecommunication systems and networks present fantastic possibilities for real balance of power, and real sharing of good rather than bad for more human beings.

Unfortunately, choices have and are still being made by certain human beings that are producing increasingly negative effects for a majority of human beings. There is no reason for this to occur.

Presently, a very unifying enemy has been exposed to global populations. That enemy is a virus. This enemy is establishing a basic motivation that may or may not affect state organizations globally. Presently individual psychological rationales, allegiances, and values that affect the war systems of the individual states is being impacted severely, and actually quite immediately. Allegiance to any state requires a cause for allegiance. A cause for allegiance requires some kind of enemy. The virus is a more than convenient opportunity to identify an enemy that is the presumed most powerful enemy in the world, that can affect any body and every body living in the world, and to be born in the world.

This COVID-19 is the power that is the enemy of unprecedented magnitude and frightfulness that is being communicated to the world populations as if it will supersede and destroy all states of humankind. This virus is being used as the tool to promote the ultimate fear in all people of immediate death and destruction to the maximum number of people. That sounds like an enemy of unprecedented magnitude and frightfulness of the highest order. That sure sounds pretty terrifying.

Is it?

This one virus is also promoted as an enemy of such unprecedented magnitude and frightfulness that absolutely no state can even hope to continue to exist unless every state is drastically changed immediately, and overnight to essentially require the total lockdown of all peoples, and the total immobilization of all people.

Is it really?

The timing is phenomenally convenient for whom? For what? To accomplish what?
Why?

The best choice for the most people on the planet to make right now is to NOT buy into that message of the big bad wolf. Just turn your back. Just walk away. Just don't buy anything except the barest of essentials to survive, and shelter yourself and your own family. Just stand your ground wherever you are as quietly as possible.
- Charlie Hardy Apr 19, 2020
  
  But remembering that all it takes is for evil to triumph is for good women and men to do nothing. Your comment means you are not in that category but don't encourage others who can make a difference to hide. The virus is virus on society illustrating what needs to be done in a range of areas especially the much more deadly and long term threatening climate change issue. We rely on the ordinary people who are treated so badly and much more exposed who can't hunker down or society will collapse, no food, no healthcare, no sanitation Learn it is these people who are the bedrock of society day to day and must be loved, protected, rewarded and respected as such.
  - Elizabeth Pula Apr 19, 2020
    
    RE: "Learn it is these people who are the bedrock of society day to day and must be loved, protected, rewarded and respected as such."
    
    Quite right. Even all the way back to the only surviving "first" documented book about state politics and systems- The Arthashastra- there has been guidance to establish equitable and reasonable systems for "everyday people". We are all everyday people. The only "thing" any of us ever really have is the health of our bodies. The real health of a state is determined by the real health of all the people. The more that are healthy, the better the state is.
    - Michael Public Apr 20, 2020
      
      States allow or disallow certain things that affect the health of their populations. It can be argued that 'the determinant' of a state's health is not a function of individuals' decisions, but rather determined by leadership policy. In Africa, there was a policy among black politicians to simply ignore the existence of hiv, until millions were infected and denial was no longer possible.
      A new reply to this comment has been posted.
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Stefan S Apr 17, 2020

Clearly, Adam Schiff is primarily responsible for the debacle we are now experiencing. Thank God that the Constitution empowers our President to adjourn Congress and institute one-man rule. Only Dear Leader in his infinite wisdom can save us now. I know he is a good man—and thorough—and could not bear the slightest responsibility for our troubles because his policy, in this matter as in all matters, is incontrovertible and pure.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Peter Schaeffer Apr 17, 2020

"But after months of US President Donald Trump ignoring their warnings about COVID-19, and after years of his administration discounting their alerts about the danger of a pandemic more generally, it is time that intelligence professionals receive the credit they deserve."

Like the ones who told Adam Schiff what was happening? Not.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Peter Schaeffer Apr 17, 2020

"But even the country's best analysts could not foresee that it would happen under a leader willing to sacrifice so many lives on the altar of his ego."

This is just pure TDS. Does Trump run Italy? Spain? Switzerland? Sweden? All them have greater death rates than the USA.
- TS Low Apr 19, 2020
  
  The day after you wrote that the US death toll was 4,500 for the single day. 4.2x greater than any other nation’s per day tally. Trump’s responsibility, except when he says “I take no responsibility”, in a nation that cannot even source enough reagents or swabs or carrying medium (the latter of which comes from China almost exclusively).
  - Peter Schaeffer Apr 19, 2020
    
    TL, Sweden's death rate is considerably higher than the US. I guess Trump runs Sweden as well as France (and Belgium). Time to get over TDS. At least you should try. Of course, I could point out that Trump has long decried US dependence on China for anything.
    - Michael Public Apr 20, 2020
      
      Death rate is largely determined by amount of testing. The US has a way lower rate than Spain and Italy because in those countries they simply did not have enough tests to test those who did not arrive at hospitals with major breathing problems - which should represent about +-80% of spreaders.
      - Peter Schaeffer Apr 20, 2020
        
        Reported infection rates are strongly influenced by the amount of testing. Death rates, not so much. Deaths get reported no matter what. Of course, many countries (including Spain, Italy, Germany, the USA, etc.) have probably under-reported Coronavirus deaths somewhat by not including COVID-19 deaths outside of a hospital.
        
        The degree of under-reporting presumably varies between countries. However, there is no evidence that the US is any worse than the others in under-reporting deaths. The bottom line is that a number of countries (including Sweden) have higher death rates than the USA. Of course, other countries (Singapore, Greece, etc.) have lower death rates.
        
        A new reply to this comment has been posted.
      A new reply to this comment has been posted.
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- Ian van de Burgt Apr 19, 2020
  
  You just rhymed off the worst countries in the world for COVID-19 death rates. What do they all have in common, including the United States? Poor leadership judgement calls. Greece (right next door to Italy), shut its schools down quickly. Canada (unlike the USA in only one major way, Trump) is doing much, much better at slowing COVID-19 growth. Most state governors now realize where the help comes from, and it is from the innovators and makes within their borders, and Canada from outside. Canada is sending nurses to Michigan, and mask-making raw materials to 3M, even while Trump calls us a "security threat" and sends our steel away, and threatens (fortunately not carried out) to block 3M from sending the masks back to us. We are unfazed by such bullying, and continue to help our brothers and sisters next door. Sweden now faces the same crisis. Didn't they learn the lesson from Italy and Greece? Finland will be there for Sweden, I'm sure!
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Gerry H Apr 17, 2020

It's not just Trump, he's just the one who gets the headlines. But i think that all our leaders in the west need to explain how it's possible we watch this whole thing eventuate, with China first in denial, then suppression, then panic as the whole world watches them build a one thousand bed emergency medical facility in ten days and we stand there, hands in the pockets, and do nothing? Not even a sense of alarm? How is this even possible! Have we all been hypnotized or just gone collectively stupid?
- Michael Public Apr 17, 2020
  
  In the west, business essentially calls the shots. Politicians are moved into power by massive campaign support from corporations - left and right are equally guilty here. The monied class knew that any kind of shutdown would be costly to shareholders, so they pushed for a denial of it, probably to buy time to turn equity positions to cash.
  - Peter Schaeffer Apr 19, 2020
    
    MP, How ill-informed. In the US, the mayor of New York (a far-left Democrat, Blasio) has been an adamant proponent of doing nothing. So has Cuomo (the governor of New York state - also a Democrat).
    - Michael Public Apr 20, 2020
      
      Are you blind? I said nothing about Republicans. The monied class is mostly Democrat these days, thanks to Silicon Valley. Republican officals receive major donations (just less) from left leaning businesses. Red and blue are both at fault here.
      - Peter Schaeffer Apr 20, 2020
        
        My comment was a response to "business essentially calls the shots". For better or worse (actually a lot worse), Blasio is an anti-business politician. Cuomo isn't quite as bad (less anti-business). However, he also repeatedly rejected calls to quarantine New York (city and/or state) to stop the Coronavirus. By contrast, the Democrats in California (presumably the ones controlled by Silicon Valley) were much more proactive in dealing with the Coronavirus.
        
        A new reply to this comment has been posted.
      A new reply to this comment has been posted.
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  - Elizabeth Pula Apr 18, 2020
    
    For sure.
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Walter Feldman Apr 17, 2020

Within hours of Trump's decision to restrict travel from China on Jan. 31, top Democrats and media outlets, including The Washington Post, immediately slammed the move as unnecessary and xenophobic. Along with the WHO, they downplayed the threat of the outbreak and said Americans should go about their business as usual, including flying to China. It's disgusting to see Harrington participating in the Democratic effort to now falsely portray Trump as not having done enough to slow the pace of the outbreak in the US.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
John Helms Apr 17, 2020

Who was President in 2008-2009 and what steps did they take to prepare an emergency plan with stockpiles of masks, ventilators and PPE? And where have the self-proclaimed geniuses Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi been all of these years? Who was Secretary of State circa 2008 and 2009, and have all these folks allowed the Chinese Communist Party to knowingly experiment with lethal viruses? Is this another Benghazi? Why don’t we host a rock concert in the White House, hold hands with each other, sing “cum by ya” and politely discuss the answers with each other in the morning? (oops, it’s too late for that now, due to social distancing, and it’s also too late to blame Donald Trump and Republicans)
- TS Low Apr 19, 2020
  
  The Obama administration did start a stockpile and supply provision, especially for ventilators. Look for the story on how that fell apart in the last 2 years. And US$ helped fund the Wuhan virus centre to assist a multi-nation effort tracking the origin of zoonotic coronaviruses using that facility. There were multiple papers from many nationals using open data from that centre.
  - John Helms Apr 19, 2020
    
    TS Low: Thank you for sharing your knowledge and comments- very helpful and appreciated- Please keep participating in this dialog and sharing your knowledge. We are lucky to have this as a wake up call, as opposed to something far worse. It extends beyond the virus and requires finding solutions (as opposed to laying political blame, which is the point I am trying to make). Solutions and progress are beginning to occur, and I am encouraged by seeing the cooperation and wisdom that continue to evolve. Let’s continue this discussion and beat this virus!
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Apr 16, 2020

Kent Harrington once again blames Trump for ignoring US intelligence, which had issued classified warnings in January and February about the global danger posed by the ominous coronavirus, while Trump and lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take action that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen.
According to the author, Trump’s hostility to the intelligence agencies poses a threat to the country’s security. In the 2019 briefing that so upset Trump, then-Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Dan Coats, reaffirmed their “conclusion that Russia had interfered in the 2016 election on Trump’s behalf, and warned that Trump’s bromance with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un had not diminished that country’s nuclear ambitions.”
The early intelligence reports did not predict when the Coronavirus might spread to the US or recommend particular steps that public health officials should take, which are issues for policymakers. But they did track the spread of the virus in China, and later in other countries, warning that Chinese officials appeared to be ignoring the severity of its outbreak, which showed the characteristics of a global pandemic.
But despite that constant flow of reporting, that should require governments to take swift actions, Trump continued publicly and privately to play down the threat. Lawmakers, too, did not grapple with the virus posed to Americans in earnest until in March, as public health officials scrambled to keep citizens indoors, bracing for a surge in infections, while criticising China for being slow to respond the coronavirus outbreak. Yet, US officials had been alerted on January 3 by discussions that the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had with Chinese colleagues.
The warnings from US intelligence agencies piled up toward the end of January and into early February, with Covid-19 making up a majority of reporting in daily briefing papers and digests from the DNI-Office and the CIA. The surge in warnings must have prompted Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to sell dozens of stocks worth between $628,033 and $1.72 million. As chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Burr was privy to virtually all of the highly classified reporting on Covid-19.
In the third week of January, US diplomats in Wuhan were being brought home on chartered planes – a sign that the public health risk was significant. Trump’s advisers struggled to get his attention. When he was reminded of the threat on January 18, he instead aksed about vaping. A week later, efforts were made to take the virus seriously. Trump was told it could cost him his reelection, and that dealing with the virus was likely to dominate life in the US for many months.
In early February, health officials warned there were not enough tests to determine the rate of infection, and began calling for a more forceful response. On February 19 Trump resisted and continued to assure Americans that Covid-19 would “disappear” in April when the weather gets warmer. “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA,” Trump tweeted five days later.
But the Department of Health and Human Services delivered a starkly different message to the Senate Intelligence Committee, saying the virus posed a “serious” threat, calling for draconian actions, that could disrupt their daily lives
Trump’s insistence on the contrary seemed to rest in his relationship with President Xi Jingping, whom Trump believed was providing him with reliable information about the virus, despite reports from intelligence agencies that Chinese officials were not being candid about the true scale of the crisis. Instead of pressing China to be more forthcoming, Trump publicly said China had been “working very hard” and that the US “greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency,” thanking Xi “on behalf of the American People.”
Some of Trump’s advisers encouraged him to be tougher on China over its decision not to allow CDC-teams from entering into the country. On February 3 he imposed a ban on entry for passengers with recent travel to China, a step he often credits for helping protect Americans against the virus.
As Covid-19 spread beyond China, US spy agencies tracked outbreaks in Iran, South Korea, Taiwan, Italy and elsewhere in Europe. As new cases popped up, the volume of reporting surged.
After the first cases of infection were confirmed in the US, Trump continued to insist that the risk to Americans was insignificant, and that the number of infected was “very small.” On February 25, he lashed out at a senior CDC official, for scaring the stock markets, when she told reporters that Covid-19 was likely to spread across the US and that disruptions to daily life could be “severe.” When signs were pointing to a major outbreak in the US, Trump changed his tone.
In March Trump ordered the annual intelligence report by DNI be postponed without explanation after warning that the US remained “vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or large-scale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support.” It was “unprepared for a global pandemic” and it has now the world’s highest number of Covid-19 cases.
The author says Trump’s misdeeds are countless: “From peddling disinformation about the virus to disbanding the National Security Council directorate overseeing pandemic threats, Trump has squandered multiple opportunities to get ahead of the COVID-19 crisis. The health and economic consequences that we are now experiencing have long been predicted. US intelligence analysts were warning about precisely this scenario for at least 12 years. But even they could not foresee that America would end up with a president willing to sacrifice so many lives on the altar of his ego.”
Rather than acting on recurrent warnings and bolstering America’s ability to respond to an outbreak, the Trump administration has instead cut back money and personnel from pandemic preparedness in May 2018, cutting the budgets of the Centers for Disease Control and the Department of Health and Human Services, and closing the federal government’s $30 million Complex Crises Fund.
The postponement of the DNI-threat assessment is a concern beyond what it says about the dangers of pandemics. Other dangers are also named in the report, including Iran’s return to nuclear enrichment, North Korea’s accelerated launching of missiles and the increasingly urgent national security risks posed by climate change.
- Guitar Player Apr 23, 2020
  
  Kent Harrington claims "US intelligence analysts were warning about precisely this scenario for at least 12 years."
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Victor Morris Apr 16, 2020

Unbelievable the Anti Trump slant you put on this President. Adam Schiff is on the Inteligence Committee when the outbreak started but he was so busy showboating at the rediculous impeachment hearing that his deriliction of duty as a member of that committee in providing warnings to the President and the CDC should be a headline article not your bias reporting.
- Peter Schaeffer Apr 19, 2020
  
  Schiff didn't care about the Coronavirus. He cared about hating Trump. He acted on his emotions, not the facts. Typical Democrat. The is actually left-wing ideology. Ever hear of 'lived experience'?
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- James Thomas Apr 17, 2020
  
  You seem to struggle with understanding the tripartite structure of our government. The president leads the executive branch, the branch that actively manages the various departments. Congress is the legislative branch and is tasked with making laws and overseeing the performance of the executive. Adam Schiff does not "provid[e] warnings to the President and the CDC," that is the role of the intelligence services and they performed that role quite well. The president, as chief executive, is responsible for using the information provided to protect and defend the American people, a role in which he has clearly not not excelled.
  
  You excoriate Mr. Harrington for his "bias reporting" but his essay is commentary not reportage.
  
  You are entitled to your own opinions Mr. Morris, but not to your own facts. You should master the facts before opining if you wish to be taken seriously.
  - Victor Morris Apr 19, 2020
    
    So whats the point of having an inteligence committee!
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/zgqJk1I

The Spies Who Predicted COVID-19

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Support High-Quality Commentary

Trump’s Counter-Intelligence Strategy

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

Log in/Register

The Spies Who Predicted COVID-19

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Support High-Quality Commentary

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification