harrington23_MANDEL NGANAFP via Getty Images_dancoatsUSintelligencesecurity

Politics

The Spies Who Predicted COVID-19

Apr 16, 2020 Kent Harrington

Despite US President Donald Trump's claims, a pandemic has long been among the top threats listed by America's intelligence community. But even the country's best analysts could not foresee that it would happen under a leader willing to sacrifice so many lives on the altar of his ego.

ATLANTA – Intelligence agencies are used to making headlines when they fail to do their job. But after months of US President Donald Trump ignoring their warnings about COVID-19, and after years of his administration discounting their alerts about the danger of a pandemic more generally, it is time that intelligence professionals receive the credit they deserve.

It should come as no surprise that Trump repeatedly dismissed intelligence about the threat of the coronavirus throughout January and February. Trump has long made clear that he has no patience for those who don’t pander to his views. When intelligence leaders contradicted him on several issues in their annual briefing to Congress last year, he told them to “go back to school.”

This year, the bill for Trump’s war on intelligence is coming due in the form of lost lives and overwhelmed health-care systems. US intelligence agencies had sounded the alarm and even provided the enemy’s battleplan, detailing precisely how a novel coronavirus pandemic would unfold. Still, the wannabe wartime president did nothing. Res ipsa loquitur – the negligence speaks for itself.

To continue reading, register now.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Already have an account? Log in

CYBER MONDAY SALE: Save $35 on all new PS subscriptions

For a limited time, you can subscribe to PS for as little as $49.99. Click the button below to find the subscription tier that is right for you.

Save Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 37 Comments on this article

Guitar Player May 15, 2020

Harrington is trying to blame Trump for 12 years of negligence even though he's only been there for 3.

"The intelligence community first raised the alert immediately after President Barack Obama took office in January 2009, when then-DNI Dennis Blair testified that, “The most pressing transnational health challenge for the United States is still the potential for emergence of a severe pandemic...a highly lethal influenza virus.”.

"The health and economic consequences that we are now experiencing have long been predicted. US intelligence analysts were warning about precisely this scenario for at least 12 years."
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Konstanzhoglo Konstanzhoglo Apr 25, 2020

As I see it's a typical attempt of the U.S. intelligence society to show its usefulness. The facts provided in the article can be got from open sources by anybody it's unnecessary to be an intelligence analytics to knew about them. So don't try to make a fuss and assure us that intelligence staff is smarter other people and can predict the future.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Guitar Player Apr 23, 2020

"US intelligence analysts were warning about precisely this scenario for at least 12 years"
The federal gov't and the states should have acquired the necessary supplies in 2009 for "precisely this scenario". According to the writer, everybody in the federal government knew everything there was to know about Covid-19 for 12 years.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Apr 23, 2020

This comment was removed by a moderator. Replies to this comment may also be deleted. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
simon noble Apr 23, 2020

The writer lists the intelligence warnings since 2009 but chooses to lambast Trump only. The reality is that Obama along with nearly every leader worldwide ignored the issue. Trump did too and in his inimitable style made it seem worse but he is simply continuing a well established trend. Look around the world. How many countries acted decisively before the US? Precious few and most criticized Trump for things like closing air travel which now are taken as a given.
No fan of Trump but could we please drop the polemics and focus on facts?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Madurai Padmanabhan Apr 20, 2020

The author does not involve the Five Eyes in his argument. If the other 4 members knew and had acted on the pandemic intelligence, as they are on Huawei, would this is become a better deliberation of facts?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Kurt Kristensen Apr 19, 2020

I enjoyed reading Mr. Harrington's historical summary of presidential annual intelligence reports for the period 2008-2020; the 2008 forecast report 'Global Trends 2025' should have been a sobering warning for all adult leaders during the last 12 years. Cross referencing his data appear to substantially confirm his presentation.

It is saddening that our best response to a global pandemic and an economic and social depression level has been an increase in name-calling by almost all adults. Rather than a deepening resolve to respectfully listen to people with differing opinions, perspectives and professional knowledge.

Historically, our escalating confrontational behavior in politics and public look remarkably like the behavior that led many of the world's countries to adopt social policies and elect leaders that started WWII. The stark contrast between rich and poor leading up to the 1929 stock market crash also appear to be a repeating pattern for 2020-30.

It would be less stressful if our sources of 'news' analysis came closer to the sober model Mr. Harrington uses to share information and facts. Perhaps we would all have a better grasp on essential common information, if we did not have almost all our news sources owned by huge corporations.

It would be difficult to defend any scientific paper using the kinds of facts the public is faced with daily from Fox TV.

Anyone looking at the lack of US preparedness to deal with the pandemic of 2020 should have serious questions about both Democratic and Republican leaders who have been in positions of leadership during 2008-2020 period.

The defunding of CDC during 2016-2019 should be especially troublesome.

Perhaps it is time to consider NEVER vote for an incumbent politician again, and, perhaps, it is time to look for people of maturity who are willing to serve our common wellness in congress and as presidents, and then go back home again.
- Michael Public Apr 20, 2020
  
  "It would be difficult to defend any scientific paper using the kinds of facts the public is faced with daily from Fox TV." You would be surprised at the number of papers that just fake results.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Randall Lawton Apr 19, 2020

What about President George W. Bush's push for preparedness. Not mentioned and well before Obama's.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Stefan S Apr 17, 2020

Clearly, Adam Schiff is primarily responsible for the debacle we are now experiencing. Thank God that the Constitution empowers our President to adjourn Congress and institute one-man rule. Only Dear Leader in his infinite wisdom can save us now. I know he is a good man—and thorough—and could not bear the slightest responsibility for our troubles because his policy, in this matter as in all matters, is incontrovertible and pure.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Gerry H Apr 17, 2020

It's not just Trump, he's just the one who gets the headlines. But i think that all our leaders in the west need to explain how it's possible we watch this whole thing eventuate, with China first in denial, then suppression, then panic as the whole world watches them build a one thousand bed emergency medical facility in ten days and we stand there, hands in the pockets, and do nothing? Not even a sense of alarm? How is this even possible! Have we all been hypnotized or just gone collectively stupid?
- Michael Public Apr 17, 2020
  
  In the west, business essentially calls the shots. Politicians are moved into power by massive campaign support from corporations - left and right are equally guilty here. The monied class knew that any kind of shutdown would be costly to shareholders, so they pushed for a denial of it, probably to buy time to turn equity positions to cash.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Walter Feldman Apr 17, 2020

Within hours of Trump's decision to restrict travel from China on Jan. 31, top Democrats and media outlets, including The Washington Post, immediately slammed the move as unnecessary and xenophobic. Along with the WHO, they downplayed the threat of the outbreak and said Americans should go about their business as usual, including flying to China. It's disgusting to see Harrington participating in the Democratic effort to now falsely portray Trump as not having done enough to slow the pace of the outbreak in the US.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
John Helms Apr 17, 2020

Who was President in 2008-2009 and what steps did they take to prepare an emergency plan with stockpiles of masks, ventilators and PPE? And where have the self-proclaimed geniuses Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi been all of these years? Who was Secretary of State circa 2008 and 2009, and have all these folks allowed the Chinese Communist Party to knowingly experiment with lethal viruses? Is this another Benghazi? Why don’t we host a rock concert in the White House, hold hands with each other, sing “cum by ya” and politely discuss the answers with each other in the morning? (oops, it’s too late for that now, due to social distancing, and it’s also too late to blame Donald Trump and Republicans)
- TS Low Apr 19, 2020
  
  The Obama administration did start a stockpile and supply provision, especially for ventilators. Look for the story on how that fell apart in the last 2 years. And US$ helped fund the Wuhan virus centre to assist a multi-nation effort tracking the origin of zoonotic coronaviruses using that facility. There were multiple papers from many nationals using open data from that centre.
  - John Helms Apr 19, 2020
    
    TS Low: Thank you for sharing your knowledge and comments- very helpful and appreciated- Please keep participating in this dialog and sharing your knowledge. We are lucky to have this as a wake up call, as opposed to something far worse. It extends beyond the virus and requires finding solutions (as opposed to laying political blame, which is the point I am trying to make). Solutions and progress are beginning to occur, and I am encouraged by seeing the cooperation and wisdom that continue to evolve. Let’s continue this discussion and beat this virus!
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Apr 16, 2020

Kent Harrington once again blames Trump for ignoring US intelligence, which had issued classified warnings in January and February about the global danger posed by the ominous coronavirus, while Trump and lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take action that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen.
According to the author, Trump’s hostility to the intelligence agencies poses a threat to the country’s security. In the 2019 briefing that so upset Trump, then-Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Dan Coats, reaffirmed their “conclusion that Russia had interfered in the 2016 election on Trump’s behalf, and warned that Trump’s bromance with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un had not diminished that country’s nuclear ambitions.”
The early intelligence reports did not predict when the Coronavirus might spread to the US or recommend particular steps that public health officials should take, which are issues for policymakers. But they did track the spread of the virus in China, and later in other countries, warning that Chinese officials appeared to be ignoring the severity of its outbreak, which showed the characteristics of a global pandemic.
But despite that constant flow of reporting, that should require governments to take swift actions, Trump continued publicly and privately to play down the threat. Lawmakers, too, did not grapple with the virus posed to Americans in earnest until in March, as public health officials scrambled to keep citizens indoors, bracing for a surge in infections, while criticising China for being slow to respond the coronavirus outbreak. Yet, US officials had been alerted on January 3 by discussions that the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had with Chinese colleagues.
The warnings from US intelligence agencies piled up toward the end of January and into early February, with Covid-19 making up a majority of reporting in daily briefing papers and digests from the DNI-Office and the CIA. The surge in warnings must have prompted Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to sell dozens of stocks worth between $628,033 and $1.72 million. As chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Burr was privy to virtually all of the highly classified reporting on Covid-19.
In the third week of January, US diplomats in Wuhan were being brought home on chartered planes – a sign that the public health risk was significant. Trump’s advisers struggled to get his attention. When he was reminded of the threat on January 18, he instead aksed about vaping. A week later, efforts were made to take the virus seriously. Trump was told it could cost him his reelection, and that dealing with the virus was likely to dominate life in the US for many months.
In early February, health officials warned there were not enough tests to determine the rate of infection, and began calling for a more forceful response. On February 19 Trump resisted and continued to assure Americans that Covid-19 would “disappear” in April when the weather gets warmer. “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA,” Trump tweeted five days later.
But the Department of Health and Human Services delivered a starkly different message to the Senate Intelligence Committee, saying the virus posed a “serious” threat, calling for draconian actions, that could disrupt their daily lives
Trump’s insistence on the contrary seemed to rest in his relationship with President Xi Jingping, whom Trump believed was providing him with reliable information about the virus, despite reports from intelligence agencies that Chinese officials were not being candid about the true scale of the crisis. Instead of pressing China to be more forthcoming, Trump publicly said China had been “working very hard” and that the US “greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency,” thanking Xi “on behalf of the American People.”
Some of Trump’s advisers encouraged him to be tougher on China over its decision not to allow CDC-teams from entering into the country. On February 3 he imposed a ban on entry for passengers with recent travel to China, a step he often credits for helping protect Americans against the virus.
As Covid-19 spread beyond China, US spy agencies tracked outbreaks in Iran, South Korea, Taiwan, Italy and elsewhere in Europe. As new cases popped up, the volume of reporting surged.
After the first cases of infection were confirmed in the US, Trump continued to insist that the risk to Americans was insignificant, and that the number of infected was “very small.” On February 25, he lashed out at a senior CDC official, for scaring the stock markets, when she told reporters that Covid-19 was likely to spread across the US and that disruptions to daily life could be “severe.” When signs were pointing to a major outbreak in the US, Trump changed his tone.
In March Trump ordered the annual intelligence report by DNI be postponed without explanation after warning that the US remained “vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or large-scale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support.” It was “unprepared for a global pandemic” and it has now the world’s highest number of Covid-19 cases.
The author says Trump’s misdeeds are countless: “From peddling disinformation about the virus to disbanding the National Security Council directorate overseeing pandemic threats, Trump has squandered multiple opportunities to get ahead of the COVID-19 crisis. The health and economic consequences that we are now experiencing have long been predicted. US intelligence analysts were warning about precisely this scenario for at least 12 years. But even they could not foresee that America would end up with a president willing to sacrifice so many lives on the altar of his ego.”
Rather than acting on recurrent warnings and bolstering America’s ability to respond to an outbreak, the Trump administration has instead cut back money and personnel from pandemic preparedness in May 2018, cutting the budgets of the Centers for Disease Control and the Department of Health and Human Services, and closing the federal government’s $30 million Complex Crises Fund.
The postponement of the DNI-threat assessment is a concern beyond what it says about the dangers of pandemics. Other dangers are also named in the report, including Iran’s return to nuclear enrichment, North Korea’s accelerated launching of missiles and the increasingly urgent national security risks posed by climate change.
- Guitar Player Apr 23, 2020
  
  Kent Harrington claims "US intelligence analysts were warning about precisely this scenario for at least 12 years."
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Victor Morris Apr 16, 2020

Unbelievable the Anti Trump slant you put on this President. Adam Schiff is on the Inteligence Committee when the outbreak started but he was so busy showboating at the rediculous impeachment hearing that his deriliction of duty as a member of that committee in providing warnings to the President and the CDC should be a headline article not your bias reporting.
- James Thomas Apr 17, 2020
  
  You seem to struggle with understanding the tripartite structure of our government. The president leads the executive branch, the branch that actively manages the various departments. Congress is the legislative branch and is tasked with making laws and overseeing the performance of the executive. Adam Schiff does not "provid[e] warnings to the President and the CDC," that is the role of the intelligence services and they performed that role quite well. The president, as chief executive, is responsible for using the information provided to protect and defend the American people, a role in which he has clearly not not excelled.
  
  You excoriate Mr. Harrington for his "bias reporting" but his essay is commentary not reportage.
  
  You are entitled to your own opinions Mr. Morris, but not to your own facts. You should master the facts before opining if you wish to be taken seriously.
  - Victor Morris Apr 19, 2020
    
    So whats the point of having an inteligence committee!
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/zgqJk1I

The Spies Who Predicted COVID-19

CYBER MONDAY SALE: Save $35 on all new PS subscriptions

Trump’s Counter-Intelligence Strategy

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

Log in/Register

The Spies Who Predicted COVID-19

CYBER MONDAY SALE: Save $35 on all new PS subscriptions

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification