elerian103_Chris McGrath_Getty Images Chris McGrath/Getty Images

土耳其能重写危机管理规则吗?

拉古娜海滩—不管是有意还是无意,土耳其正在试图改写新兴市场操作手册的危机管理章。土耳其政府没有选择升息和寻求外部融资锚来支持国内政策调整,而是采取了一系列不太直接也更局部性的操作——与此同时,土耳其正在与美国进行以牙还牙的关税竞赛,全球经济环境也是波诡云谲。所有这些会如何展开不仅对土耳其很重要,对其他已必须面对金融传染风波的新兴经济体也很重要。

土耳其危机的起始阶段与过去的新兴市场货币危机无甚差别。一系列国内和外部事件——过犹不及的信贷拉动增长战略;对央行政策自主权和效率的质疑;以及部分拜美国升息所赐的不利的全球流动性环境——动摇了外汇市场。

与美国的政治冲突助长了自我强化的动态,进而加速了土耳其里拉挤兑。而所有这些都发生在一个更加不确定和疲软的全球经济中(美国除外)。

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