trump alabama rally Mark Wallheiser/Stringer

特朗普的无定新世界

发自墨西哥城——继任美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的新政府唯一确定能为人们带来的一点,就是其不确定性。保留不确定性或许是一个成功的商业策略,但对于世界上最强大国家的领导者来说,这却是一个令人不安甚至危险的特质。而在三大敏感政策领域则尤其如此

第一是美国经济及其对所有其他经济体的影响。如果特朗普实施减税并成功启动大规模基础设施计划,美国的预算赤字将会上升,甚至可能急剧上升。这会与美联储的逐步加息一起令美元进一步走强,进而削弱所谓的新兴市场货币,并将货币从世界其他地区转移到美国。

随着拉丁美洲,亚洲和非洲国家的货币贬值,它们将面临储备下跌或本国利率飙升的情况,同时通胀率上升。对于那些自从大宗商品繁荣期终结以后只能勉强维持的经济体,这是一个令人担忧,甚至有点可怕的前景。

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