Oil facility in the Khark Island ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images

美国对伊朗制裁的已知的未知

北京—美国总统特朗普恢复了对伊朗制裁,这引出了两个重要问题,目前这两个问题尚无令人信服的答案。第一,这一举动会如特朗普所称的那样,让世界变得更加安全,还是会如大部分不直接受雇于美国、以色列和沙特政府的地缘政治专家所认为的那样,进一步动摇中东,破坏遏制核武器的未来行动?

当然,伊朗制裁可能只是一个空洞的姿态。一位前中国驻伊朗大使最近指出:“一年多来,从北美自由贸易协定、跨太平洋合作伙伴关系和巴黎气候协议,到朝鲜半岛核问题和叙利亚内战,特朗普的外交政策都可以用雷声大,雨点小来描述。”

尽管如此,战争与和平的问题不可能获得答案。2003年伊拉克战争爆发以来的中东混乱已经持续了十五年,给了世界一个无可争议的教训:白宫、中央情报局、摩萨德和沙特情报机构中没有一个人看到了该地区接下来会发生什么的线索。

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