Patrik Stollarz/AFP/Getty Images

Unas lecciones alemanas necesarias para el presidente Trump

MÚNICH – El presidente de Estados Unidos  Donald ha criticado el enorme superávit de cuenta corriente de Alemania, mismo que él considera es el resultado de la manipulación alemana de la moneda. Pero, el presidente está equivocado. Si bien el superávit externo de Alemania, que se encuentra en un nivel del 8% del PIB, es grande – demasiado grande – no es el resultado de la manipulación de la moneda por parte de Alemania. Los verdaderos culpables son: una burbuja inflacionaria de crédito en el sur de Europa, las políticas expansivas del Banco Central Europeo y los productos financieros que los bancos norteamericanos venden al mundo. Por lo tanto, en lugar de culpar a Alemania, el Presidente Trump haría bien en centrarse en las instituciones de su propio país.

El superávit comercial de Alemania se basa en el hecho de que Alemania vende sus productos a un precio demasiado bajo. En este punto, la administración de Trump está básicamente en lo correcto. El euro está demasiado barato en relación con el dólar estadounidense, y Alemania está vendiendo demasiado barato a sus socios comerciales dentro de la eurozona. Esta subvaloración aumenta la demanda de bienes alemanes en otros países, mientras que Alemania se tornó reacia a importar tanto como exporta.

El euro tiene actualmente un precio de 1,07 dólares, mientras que la paridad del poder adquisitivo determinada por la OCDE asciende a 1,29 dólares. Esto implica una infravaloración del euro del 17%. Además, Alemania es un país demasiado barato dentro de la eurozona, un 19% si se usa como línea base un cálculo que a partir del año 2013 realiza Goldman Sachs, y se le resta a dicho cálculo la apreciación en términos reales desde ese momento. De manera general, esto implica que la moneda de Alemania está infravalorada en cerca de un tercio.

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