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为何中国不会向特朗普屈服

发自北京——上个月,美国总统特朗普颁布了专门针对中国的钢铁和铝制品关税。4月2日中国宣布对128种美国产品征收关税。特朗普随后宣布对大约相当于500亿美元进口额的另外1300种中国产品征收25%关税。针锋相对之下,中国威胁对美国106种出口产品(包括大豆,汽车和飞机)加征25%关税,一旦美国关税生效就立刻执行。

毫无疑问,一旦这些措施生效,就等于爆发了一场贸易战——而且是一场美国不太可能打赢的战争。

尽管经济学家们普遍认为贸易战中没有赢家,但也有人辩称特朗普的行动是一种精明的谈判策略,以驱使中国调整其贸易政策,例如要求外国企业分享自身知识产权来换取中国市场准入。然而特朗普并不了解这类谈判的基础:他以为拥有贸易赤字的一方必然具备更强的谈判地位。实际上盈余国往往处于强势地位,因为它已经积累了一批对其“对手”的财务权益。

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