Politics

فرصة ترامب في آسيا

Nov 6, 2017 Douglas H. Paal

واشنطن – يقوم الرئيس الأمريكي دونالد ترامب بزيارته الرسمية الأولى لآسيا بعد عام من انتخابه. وسوف تركز الجولة التي ستستمر 12 يوما في خمسة بلدان - وهي أطول رحلة خارجية لترامب حتى الآن - وفقا للإحاطات الرسمية على تخفيف الشكوك حول موثوقية الولايات المتحدة وزعيمها. وبالنظر إلى التحديات والإمكانات بالنسبة للولايات المتحدة في آسيا، هذا هدف غير طموح.

سيبدأ ترامب رحلته من خلال تعزيز تحالفات أمريكا مع اليابان وكوريا الجنوبية - التحالفات التي سبق له أن أهملها واستخف بها، وخاصة خلال حملته الانتخابية. والهدف من ذلك هو دعم مطالبته التي سيؤكدها مجددا عندما يصل إلى بيجن بأن تفي الصين بتعهداتها في مجلس الأمن الدولي بتشديد العقوبات على كوريا الشمالية.

بعد ذلك سيتوجه ترامب إلى لفيتنام والفلبين. ومن الضروري إقامة علاقات وثيقة مع كلا البلدين لدعم الجهود الأمريكية الجارية لتحدي النفوذ المتزايد للصين في جنوب شرق آسيا. وكان لإدارة الرئيس باراك أوباما نتائج متباينة في التنافس على النفوذ مع الصين. وقد أشار مسؤولو إدارة ترامب مؤخرا إلى أن الولايات المتحدة قد تضع، في مرحلة ما، إستراتيجية جديدة لمنطقة الهند والمحيط الهادئ بأسره.

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j. von Hettlingen Nov 7, 2017

Douglas H. Paal will be disappointed with Trump's visit to Asia, because he will not take advantage of the "golden opportunity" to ease tensions and reinforce America’s alliances with Japan and South Korea, which he had "discounted and belittled" in the past. His main focus is on reducing America's trade deficits with China, Japan and South Korea.
Trump finds himself torn between loyal supporters, who are eager to see him take a hard stance on the Chinese trade and economic practices he railed against during last year's campaign. But many in his administration have pushed Trump to ditch these concerns and seek to put pressure on Xi Jinping to tighten the screws on North Korea.
Apart from a reunion with Shinzo Abe, Trump looks forward to meeting Xi Jinping in Beijing and Vladimir Putin in Danang, Vietnam, on the sidelines of the APEC. He hopes to get Xi and Putin on board to deal with the nuclear threat posed by Kim Jong-un. On his last leg of his Asia trip, he will visit Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines, where he will be given a pompous welcome. The brute opportunist lets drug offenders be slaughtered like dogs and journalists disappear in his controversial drug war, while earning praise from Trump. The Vietnamese host can rest assured that Trump will not criticise him for the brutal crackdowns on dissidents.
Trump's two-day trip to Japan went well, thanks to warm personal relations with Shinzo Abe. That he lashed out at Japan over trade and said he would push for a fairer economic relationship between the two countries meant to appease his supporters back home that he has not forgotten his campaign pledges. Calling on Japan to build more cars in America aimed to bring jobs to America. He praised Japan, which counts the US as its second largest trade partner after China, and urged Abe to buy more arms from Washington to counter the nuclear threat from Pyongyang.
Trump's next stop is Seoul, where he will spend 24 hours and be met with demonstrations. All through the summer, his bellicose rhetoric on North Korea's missile tests, his readiness to sacrifice South Korea in the event of launching an attack against the North, and his hint at scraping the "horrible" US-South Korea free trade deal drew much ire from South Koreans. Owing to the deployment of the US military’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on South Korean soil, which China views as a threat to its own security and the region’s strategic balance, Seoul had taken the shortend of the stick following Beijing's economic retaliation.
Trump admires Xi, and he congratulated the assertive and pugnacious nationalist who emerged more powerful than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong from last month's Communist Party Congress. Xi will not let himself be easily pressured into compromise on Trump’s terms, because both men have different ojbectives when it comes to mutual concerns like trade and the nuclear threat posed by North Korea. Xi will seek to gain the upper-hand, knowing Trump lacks the kind of long-term strategic thinking that their relationship demands.
Most observers doubt a grand agreement will be reached. But it would be a step forward, if Trump could agree with Xi to establish a formal way to work on Chinese-American relations. The Chinese have learned to manage Trump - a reality TV-buffoon - and would no doubt take advantage of his narcissism. Granting him a "state state-plus" would boost his ego. China had in the past gone to great lengths to accommodate the requests of Trump's children, who seek business ties in China. One professor of international relations said: “We’re going to make him feel comfortable...He may end up being re-elected. We need to look at this from a long-term perspective, and not view him as an ‘other’ or a joke.” It is cynical and disgusting beyond description, because China is seeking to turn the US into an autocratic regime. While Xi sweeps corruption with an iron broom, Chinese officials help Trump's clan ignore the conflict of interest.
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