Blasen ohne Ende

NEW HAVEN – Man möchte meinen, dass wir seit dem Platzen der größten weltweit je existierenden Immobilienblase und dem Ende einer großen globalen Börsenblase im darauf folgenden Jahr in einer Welt nach der Blase leben. Aber man hört immer wieder von Blasen – neue oder andauernde Immobilienblasen in vielen Ländern, eine neue globale Börsenblase, eine langfristige Blase auf dem Anleihemarkt in den USA und anderen Ländern, eine Ölpreisblase, eine Goldblase und so weiter.

Dennoch habe ich bei meinem Besuch in Kolumbien im vergangenen Monat keine Blasengeschichte erwartet. Aber auch dort berichtete man mir von einer aktuellen Immobilienblase. Mein Fahrer fuhr mit mir durch das Seebad Cartagena und zeigte mir mit einem Ton der Verwunderung in der Stimme verschiedene Häuser, die vor kurzem für Millionen Dollars verkauft worden waren.

Kolumbiens Zentralbank, die Banco de la Republica, unterhält einen Hauspreisindex für drei große Städte: Bogota, Medellin und Cali. Der Index ist seit 2004 effektiv (inflationsbereinigt) um 69 Prozent gestiegen, hauptsächlich nach 2007. Diese Zuwachsrate der Preise erinnert an die Erfahrung aus den USA, als der Hauspreisindex für 10 US-Städte von S&P/Case-Shiller vom niedrigsten Stand 1997 zum höchsten Stand 2006 effektiv um 131 Prozent zunahm.

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