Paul Lachine

Il futuro della crescita economica

CAMBRIDGE – Forse per la prima volta nella storia moderna, il futuro dell’economia globale si trova nelle mani dei paesi poveri. Gli Stati Uniti e l’Europa si muovono a fatica come giganti feriti, vittime degli eccessi finanziari e della paralisi economica. A causa dei pesanti debiti sembrano condannati ad anni di stagnazione o lenta crescita, a una maggiore disuguaglianza e a possibili tensioni sociali.

Nel frattempo, gran parte del resto del mondo si riempie di speranza ed energia. In Cina, Brasile, India e Turchia i policy maker si preoccupano dell’eccessiva crescita. Per certi versi la Cina è già la più grande economia del mondo, e i paesi emergenti e quelli in via di sviluppo rappresentano oltre la metà della produzione mondiale. La società di consulenza McKinsey ha battezzato l’Africa, a lungo sinonimo di insuccesso economico, il paese dei “leoni in movimento”.

Come spesso accade, i romanzi riflettono al meglio il nuovo mood. Il romanzo comico dello scrittore russo emigrato Gary Shteyngart, Storia d’amore vera e supertriste, illustra bene ciò che potrebbe attenderci. Ambientata nel futuro prossimo, la storia si svolge in uno scenario apocalittico che vede gli Stati Uniti sull’orlo della rovina finanziaria e della dittatura monopartitica, coinvolti nell’ennesima ed inutile avventura militare all’estero – questa volta in Venezuela. I lavori all’interno delle società vengono svolti da immigrati specializzati, le università della Ivy League adottano i nomi delle controparti asiatiche per sopravvivere, l’economia dipende direttamente dalla banca centrale cinese, e i “dollari americani ancorati allo yuan” sostituiscono la comune valuta in quanto asset sicuro.

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