恐惧经济

全球经济似乎走在薄薄的水面上,对飞涨的油价、欧洲的政策僵局、美国不可持续的巨额债务和历史高点的房价置之不理。是否真像8国集团领导人想让我们相信的那样,造成目前状况的原因是由于投资者热情高涨,对全球经济的管理状况充满信心?还是变态的恐惧影响了长期利率,从而掩盖了很多即将爆发的问题。

扣除物价上涨因素后的长期利率低得令人难以置信,这样的利率掩盖了全球经济的众多问题,这一点已经再明显不过。全球范围内飞涨的房价支持了很多国家的消费需求,而且国际货币基金组织最近进行的研究显示,持续下降的长期利率占导致全球价格上涨因素的三分之二强。虽然欧洲获利较少,但如果长期利率回涨到25年来的平均水平,那么欧洲的经济状况就会大大恶化。

与此相似,尽管债台高筑、政治改革众说纷纭,但拉丁美洲近年来仍然获得了长足的发展。较低的长期利率使该地区债务尚可控制,同时消费需求高涨使得该地区的出口商品价格猛增。

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