Непопулярный путь Европейского Центрального Банка

Сейчас уже понятно, что Европейский Центральный Банк (ЕЦБ) рассматривает высокие процентные ставки в качестве правильного ответа на растущие цены на нефть. В результате, ЕЦБ рискует загнать себя в угол, так как логика, которая следует из скачка величины процентных ставок, произошедшего на этой неделе, позволяет предположить, что за этим должно последовать их дальнейшее повышение - и таким образом будет совершен ряд стратегических ошибок, что дорого обойдется европейской экономике.

Несмотря на противоположные мнения на этот счет, ни один банк, в том числе и ЕЦБ, не может сосредоточиться только на инфляции и при этом игнорировать процессы, происходящие в экономической деятельности. Предположим, к примеру, что цены стабилизировались за счет 30% уровня безработицы. Естественно, такая стабилизация никому не нужна.

Защитники ЕЦБ сказали бы, что это - просто гипотеза, и одно другого не касается – поскольку нет никакого конфликта между стабилизацией инфляции и поддержанием соответствующего уровня экономической активности. Согласно этой теории, стабильность цен снижает уровень неопределенности, позволяя таким образом фирмам и отдельным предпринимателям принимать правильные решения, что приносит пользу, а не вредит экономической активности.

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