Die Alternative zum Kurs der EZB

Es ist nun offensichtlich, dass die Europäische Zentralbank höhere Zinssätze als die richtige Antwort auf steigende Ölpreise ansieht. Als Folge davon läuft die EZB Gefahr, sich selbst in die Enge zu treiben, denn die Logik hinter der Zinssatzerhöhung in dieser Woche impliziert, dass weitere Erhöhungen folgen werden – eine Reihe von politischen Fehlern, die die Eurozone teuer zu stehen kommen wird.

Trotz gegenteiliger Erklärungen kann keine Zentralbank, die EZB eingeschlossen, sich einfach auf die Inflation konzentrieren und dabei ignorieren, was mit der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität geschieht. Nehmen wir – um der Diskussion willen – an, dass die Stabilisierung der Preise eine Arbeitslosenquote von 30 % bedeuten würde. Sicher würde das niemand wollen.

Die Verteidiger der EZB würden sagen, dass ein solches Ergebnis rein hypothetisch ist – und irrelevant – denn es gibt keinen Konflikt zwischen der Inflationsstabilisierung und dem Aufrechterhalten eines angemessenen Niveaus wirtschaftlicher Aktivität. Die Preisstabilität verringert nach dieser Auffassung die Unsicherheit und ermöglicht es damit Firmen und Einzelnen, die richtigen Entscheidungen zu treffen. Deshalb ist sie gut für die wirtschaftliche Aktivität, und nicht schlecht.

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