欧洲央行没有选择的道路

现在看来,欧洲中央银行显然把提高利率看作是对油价提高的正确回应。其结果是,欧洲央行面临将自己逼入绝境的风险,因为本周利率提升的背后隐藏的逻辑暗示今后利率还将多次提升——一连串会让欧元区经济体付出沉重代价的政策错误。

尽管嘴上不说,但实际上没有一家中央银行,包括欧洲央行在内,能够单纯地集中解决通胀,而忽视对经济活动的影响。假如——仅仅是打个比方——稳定物价的代价是30%的失业率,肯定不会有人喜欢。

替欧洲央行辩护的人会说,这样的结果纯粹是假想——而且毫无根据——因为稳定物价和保持适当的经济活动水平之间不存在冲突。在这种人看来,物价稳定可以减少不稳定因素,从而使公司和个人得以做出正确的决定,因此对经济活动有益无害。

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