英国央行深陷两难境地

牛津——

安德鲁·森泰斯是英国银行货币政策委员会的即将离任委员,他最近为英国银行构想出一种对信用体制构成巨大挑战的未来发展模式。两种相互矛盾的因素会使通货膨胀率明显高于英国央行设定的2%的目标,这一状况不仅会在今年和明年出现,而且还很有可能持续到2013年。

当前的困境是这样的:英国货币贬值导致英国进出口商品通胀水平上升,而这一水平却不能为经济发展过程中产能过剩所抵消。换句话讲,英国经济产能过剩(大萧条期间产量下跌6.4%,至今尚未完全恢复),但这还远远不够。因此,自2008年金融危机后,英国在经济恢复过程中始终保持着高于英国银行设立的目标的通胀率,而且森泰斯认为通胀水平很有可能会高出英国银行“两年中期预测平台”设立的目标。

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