能源安全变化中的表象

三十年来,富有国家一直在谈论限制其对进口石油的依赖。但是,尽管人们焦急地发表长篇大论,石油供应问题变得愈加严重,而能源安全则更为复杂。尽管政坛人物们不断呼吁能源自给自足,但是,以美国为例,在过去30年中其对进口石油的依赖增加了一倍。进口石油已经占到其石油需求的将近三分之二。

威胁切断石油供应来改变某国的外交政策由来已久,特别是涉及中东问题之时。石油输出国组织中的阿拉伯成员国在1967年战争的时候呼吁实行禁运,但是由于美国当时在很大程度上是自给自足,因此效果不大。

但是到了1973年的赎罪日战争的时候,由于美国对进口石油不断增加的需求,阿拉伯的石油禁运产生了更大的效果。这一禁运提高了物价,引发了世界范围的通货膨胀和经济停滞。它还表明,石油是一种可替代商品。尽管禁运针对的是美国和荷兰,但是市场的力量在消费者之中调配着石油。从长期而言,所有的消费国家都遭受供应短缺和相同的价格冲击。石油禁运到头来是一把钝刀,既打击了目标国家,也伤害了其他许多人。

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