Aquel programa del decenio de 1970 en Rusia

MOSCÚ -- ¿Podrá escapar Rusia a la “maldición de los recursos” que entrañan unos elevados precios del petróleo o sucumbirá a la llamada hipótesis “70-80”? Ésa es la pregunta que afrontan los rusos en la actualidad y tememos que su destino sea el segundo: si los precios del petróleo siguen siendo de entre 70 y 80 dólares el barril, es probable que Rusia vuelva a vivir las características principales de la era Brezhnev de los decenios de 1970 y 1980... con una economía estancada y unos índice de aprobación de entre el 70 y el 80 por ciento para sus dirigentes políticos.

La maldición de los recursos significa, naturalmente, que las minorías dirigentes rusas preferirán aplazar la reestructuración de la economía y la modernización de las instituciones políticas y económicas del país, lo que socavará sus resultados económicos, y será muy improbable que Rusia reduzca en los 10-15 años próximos la distancia que la separa de las economías avanzadas.

El crecimiento económico rápido y sostenible requiere un Estado de derecho, burócratas sujetos a la rendición de cuentas, meritocráticos y no corruptos, protección de los derechos de propiedad, imposición del cumplimiento de los contratos y mercados competitivos. Semejantes instituciones son difíciles de crear en todas las sociedades. En Rusia, la tarea resulta particularmente problemática, porque los intereses de la minoría gobernante se oponen a su ejecución.

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