Paul Lachine

Los límites de los combustibles fósiles a prueba

MILÁN – En general las personas reconocen que las actividades humanas, principalmente el uso de combustibles fósiles, están contribuyendo firmemente al nivel creciente de los gases de efecto invernadero en la atmósfera. Estos gases, en particular el CO2, incrementan el riesgo de daños al clima global. Ello significa que los límites a nuestro consumo de combustibles fósiles no pueden medirse solamente en función  de la disponibilidad de suministros sino que también se deben tomar en consideración los costos medioambientales.

Con todo, existe todavía una incertidumbre considerable sobre la magnitud del impacto en las temperaturas y el clima de los niveles crecientes de gases de efecto invernadero en la atmósfera. Esta incertidumbre se debe tomar con seriedad en la formulación de estrategias para combatir el cambio climático.

Los países en desarrollo con un crecimiento elevado –Brasil, Rusia, la India, China y otros del G-20- ahora representan más de la mitad de la población mundial. Si estos países mantienen sus trayectorias actuales de fuerte crecimiento, como parece probable, sus niveles de ingresos se acercarán a los de los países adelantados para mediados de siglo o poco después.

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