Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Spencer Platt/Getty Images

2018年的自满情绪考验

发自纽黑文——在被后危机绝望情绪折磨了多年之后,预测者们如今似乎对2018年的全球经济前景一致表示乐观。世界GDP增长看似日益强劲,同步且不引发通胀。一片兴旺的金融市场似乎也无可指摘。

虽然我一向对预测界人士以及金融市场的集体智慧敬重有加,但我怀疑当前的自满共识将在2018年遭受严峻考验。这种考验可能来自某场冲击——尤其是在爆发热战(对朝鲜)或贸易战(美中两国之间)以及资产泡沫破裂(比如比特币)的风险不断上升之时。而我的预感是这一考验将演变成某些更为系统性的东西。

全世界都致力于摆脱三大趋势:非常规货币政策,实体经济对资产的依赖,以及可能破坏稳定的全球储蓄套利行为。而岌岌可危的正是当前这种乐观主义的深层次基本面,以致我怀疑支撑这一自满情绪的其中一根或几根支柱会在2018年崩溃。

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