Greece and EU flags Wassilios Aswestopoulos/ZumaPress

Por qué cederá Syriza

LONDRES – Parece que, una vez más, Grecia se ha quitado la soga financiera del cuello. Recurrió a sus tenencias en una cuenta de reserva del Fondo Monetario Internacional y logró devolver 750 millones de EUR (851 millones de USD) –irónicamente, al propio FMI– justo antes de que la deuda venciera.

Esta arriesgada política no fue un accidente, desde que asumió en enero, el gobierno griego, liderado por el primer ministro Alexis Tsipras, del partido Syriza, ha creído que la amenaza de la cesación de pagos –y, con ella, de una crisis financiera que podría hacer estallar al euro– le proporciona apalancamiento en la negociación para contrarrestar la falta de poder político y económico de su país. Meses más tarde, Tsipras y su ministro de finanzas, Yanis Varoufakis, un experto académico en teoría de los juegos, aún parecen estar comprometidos con esta visión, a pesar de la falta de evidencia en su favor.

Pero su cálculo se basa en una premisa falsa, Tsipras y Varoufakis suponen que un incumplimiento obligaría a Europa a elegir entre tan solo dos alternativas: expulsar a Grecia de la zona del euro u ofrecerle asistencia incondicional para el pago de su deuda; pero las autoridades europeas cuentan con una tercera opción en caso de un incumplimiento griego. En vez de forzar la salida de Grecia o «Grexit», como se la llama, la UE podría dejarla atrapada dentro de la zona del euro y privarla de dinero, para luego sentarse a esperar y ver cómo se desploma el apoyo político interno al gobierno de Tsipras.

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