Greece and EU flags Wassilios Aswestopoulos/ZumaPress

Proč ucukne Syriza

LONDÝN – Řecko se zřejmě opět vyvléklo z finanční oprátky. Čerpáním z fondů na rezervním účtu při Mezinárodním měnovém fondu se mu podařilo splatit 750 milionů eur, paradoxně samotnému MMF, právě když se splátka dostávala do splatnosti.

Tato hra s ohněm není shoda náhod. Řecká vláda vedená stranou Syriza premiéra Alexise Tsiprase je od lednového nástupu k moci přesvědčena, že hrozba nesplácením – a tedy finanční krizí, která by mohla rozbít euro – jí dává vyjednávací páku kompenzující nedostatek řecké ekonomické a politické síly. I po několika měsících jsou Tsipras a jeho ministr financí Janis Varufakis, akademický expert na teorii her, tomuto názoru zřejmě stále věrní, navzdory nedostatku důkazů, o které by se opíral.

Jejich kalkulace ale vychází z mylné premisy. Tsipras a Varufakis předpokládají, že nesplácení by Evropu přinutilo volit z pouhých dvou alternativ: vyloučit Řecko z eurozóny, anebo mu nabídnout bezpodmínečnou úlevu při splácení dluhu. Jenže evropské orgány budou mít v případě řeckého selhání ještě třetí možnost. Namísto vynuceného odchodu by EU mohla Řecko uvěznit uvnitř eurozóny, finančně jej vyhladovět a pak s rukama v klíně sledovat, jak se zhroutí domácí podpora Tsiprasovy vlády.

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