Greece and EU flags Wassilios Aswestopoulos/ZumaPress

左翼联盟必败论

伦敦—希腊似乎再一次踏入了金融圈套。借助其在国际货币基金组织(IMF)储备账户中的资金,它得以在最后一刻偿还7.5亿欧元——讽刺的是,还的正是IMF本身。

如此惊险绝非巧合。自1月执政以来,由总理齐普拉斯的左翼联盟(Syriza)党领导的希腊政府认为,违约——以及可能由此导致的欧元区崩溃——威胁能够给希腊提供谈判筹码,抵消其在经济和政治实力上的弱势。几个月后,齐普拉斯和他的财政部长、博弈论专家瓦鲁法基斯(Yanis Varoufakis)似乎仍坚持这一观点,尽管根本没有证据可以支持这一看法。

但他们的算计基于一个错误的前提。齐普拉斯和瓦鲁法基斯认为违约将迫使欧洲在两个选项中进行选择:将希腊逐出欧元区,或无条件债务减免。但如果希腊违约,欧洲当局还有第三条路。它可以不强迫“希腊退出”发生,而是把希腊困在欧元区又不给它钱,然后坐视齐普拉斯政府国内支持率崩盘。

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