Criteri Per Una Politica Monetaria Fuori Norma

PARIGI – Una delle caratteristiche che ha distinto la crisi finanziaria mondiale è stata l’introduzione generalizza di misure non convenzionali di politica monetaria da parte delle principali banche centrali. Abbiamo visto il potenziamento di strumenti come il sostegno del credito, l’allentamento del credito, l’allentamento quantitativo, gli interventi sulla valuta e sui mercati dei titoli, e la fornitura di liquidità in valuta estera – per citare solo alcune delle misure adottate.

Alcuni vedono queste misure come la continuazione della politica standard attraverso altri mezzi. Una volta che i tassi di interesse nominali non possono essere ulteriormente abbassati, le banche centrali usano altri strumenti per determinare la linea della politica monetaria. Sono arrivati alla fine della strada asfaltata, quindi devono azionare la trazione integrata a quattro ruote: espandono i loro bilanci ed iniettano liquidità in modo da influenzare la struttura delle rendite e dei profitti e quindi stimolare la domanda aggregata. Ma quando le banche centrali ritornano sulla strada maestra –cioè, quando abbandonano le misure fuori norma - devono ripercorrere il loro cammino, in primo luogo disfacendo le forme di politica non convenzionale, e solo allora rialzando i tassi di interesse.

Mi permetto di suggerire una visione diversa. Diciamo che i tassi di interesse fondamentali siano fissati ad un livello ritenuto opportuno per il mantenimento della stabilità dei prezzi, sulla base di valutazioni complessive e regolari delle condizioni economiche e monetarie. Seguendo la pratica standard, i tassi di interesse possono essere più o meno significativamente positivi, molto vicino a zero, o a zero.

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