Der Abbau des US-Arbeitsplatzdefizits

BERKELEY – Die neuesten Beschäftigungsdaten aus den Vereinigten Staaten bestätigen, dass sich die Erholung der amerikanischen Wirtschaft von der Großen Rezession 2008/2009 fortsetzt, obwohl die Konjunkturflaute in anderen G-20-Ländern anhält. Tatsächlich ist das Beschäftigungswachstum in der Privatwirtschaft während dieser Erholung weitaus stärker gewesen als während der Erholung von der Rezession des Jahres 2001 und ist mit der Erholung von der Rezession 1990/1991 vergleichbar.

Während der vergangenen 31 Monate hat die Beschäftigung im privaten Sektor um 5,2 Millionen zugenommen und zum ersten Mal seit fast vier Jahren ist die Arbeitslosenquote auf gegenwärtig unter 8% gesunken. Trotzdem liegt die Arbeitslosenquote immer noch fast zwei Prozentpunkte über dem langfristigen Niveau, das die meisten Wirtschaftswissenschaftler als normal betrachten, wenn die Wirtschaft ihr Produktionspotenzial weitgehend ausschöpft.

Hinzukommt, dass die Zahl der Langzeitarbeitslosen (27 Wochen oder länger) etwa 40% der Arbeitslosen insgesamt ausmacht – der niedrigste Anteil seit 2009, aber immer noch wesentlich höher als in den früheren Rezessionen seit der Weltwirtschaftskrise der 1930er-Jahre und ungefähr doppelt so hoch wie in einem normalen Arbeitsmarkt. Demnach entspannt sich die Lage auf dem US-Arbeitsmarkt zwar, von einer echten Erholung ist sie aber immer noch weit entfernt.

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