The latest last-minute deal to raise the US debt limit does not solve the underlying political problem. On the contrary, with the country on track for a Biden-Trump rematch next year – a contest that Trump just might win – the truce is likely to be short-lived.
sees little reason to believe the latest last-minute deal will be anything more than a short-lived truce.
伦敦—“决不让危机浪费了”这一直是欧盟指导原则之一。但如果五场危机同时发生呢?如今,欧盟面临欧盟委员会副主席提默曼斯(Frans Timmermans)所说的“多重危机”:英国退欧、难民流入、财政紧缩、东部和南部地缘政治威胁,以及中欧“不自由的民主”。欧盟所面临的不是浪不浪费危机的问题,而是可能因危机而废的问题。
果真如此的话,英国退欧就是爆炸的引信。英国退欧导致欧盟解体的概念合法化,从而让政治极端分子的幻想转变为全欧洲主流政治的现实选项,它有可能引发不可逆转的解题过程。它还有可能改变经济,让欧洲中央银行在下一次欧元危机中无可作为:欧洲央行总是能够击退市场投机,但对来自选民的解体压力毫无反抗之力。
因此,欧盟急需将解体的精灵捉回瓶中。这意味着说服英国改变对欧洲的看法,而根据英吉利海峡两岸的传统智慧,这是一个不可能的任务。但如今,许多政治上的“不可能”都正在发生。
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