

Fifteen years after the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers triggered a devastating global financial crisis, the banking system is in trouble again. Central bankers and financial regulators each seem to bear some of the blame for the recent tumult, but there is significant disagreement over how much – and what, if anything, can be done to avoid a deeper crisis.
伦敦—“决不让危机浪费了”这一直是欧盟指导原则之一。但如果五场危机同时发生呢?如今,欧盟面临欧盟委员会副主席提默曼斯(Frans Timmermans)所说的“多重危机”:英国退欧、难民流入、财政紧缩、东部和南部地缘政治威胁,以及中欧“不自由的民主”。欧盟所面临的不是浪不浪费危机的问题,而是可能因危机而废的问题。
果真如此的话,英国退欧就是爆炸的引信。英国退欧导致欧盟解体的概念合法化,从而让政治极端分子的幻想转变为全欧洲主流政治的现实选项,它有可能引发不可逆转的解题过程。它还有可能改变经济,让欧洲中央银行在下一次欧元危机中无可作为:欧洲央行总是能够击退市场投机,但对来自选民的解体压力毫无反抗之力。
因此,欧盟急需将解体的精灵捉回瓶中。这意味着说服英国改变对欧洲的看法,而根据英吉利海峡两岸的传统智慧,这是一个不可能的任务。但如今,许多政治上的“不可能”都正在发生。
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