Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

Фактор Роухани

ПАЛО-АЛЬТО – Президентские выборы в Иране 19 мая были парадоксальными, и их можно считать потенциально поворотным моментом в истории страны. Они начинались как нечто сонное ‑ почти предсказуемая победа действующего президента Хассана Роухани над пестрой командой начинающих и действующих консерваторов. Более того, с 1981 года два срока для одного президента стали чем-то само собой разумеющимся. В таком контексте начавшиеся нападки на Роухани выглядели как попытки верховного лидера Али Хаменеи, его консервативно настроенных клерикальных союзников и стражей революции ослабить позицию действующего президента и удержать его в рамках второго срока.

Но потом выборы превратились в жаркую баталию, когда консерваторы объединились вокруг «темной лошадки» Ибрагима Раиси, бескомпромиссного юриста, участвовавшего в преследованиях оппозиции. То, что ранее Хаменеи поручил Раиси возглавить крупнейший в Иране религиозный фонд, выглядело не банальной раздачей легкой работы, а продвижением на положение возможного верховного лидера.

Широко распространено мнение, что победа Раиси фактически обеспечила бы его успех в возможной борьбе за пост Хаменеи, который сам был президентом и «катапультировался» на должность верховного лидера, когда умер аятолла Рухолла Хомейни. Поскольку Хаменеи сообщил, что болен раком, вопрос преемника стал еще более острым. И мощный идеологический, институциональный и пропагандистский аппарат консерваторов был мобилизован для победы Раиси над Роухани.

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